Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 15, 2013

Updated: Tue Jan 15 20:26:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 15, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 15, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 15, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 15, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 15, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 15, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 15, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Jan 17, 2013 - Fri, Jan 18, 2013 D6Sun, Jan 20, 2013 - Mon, Jan 21, 2013
D4Fri, Jan 18, 2013 - Sat, Jan 19, 2013 D7Mon, Jan 21, 2013 - Tue, Jan 22, 2013
D5Sat, Jan 19, 2013 - Sun, Jan 20, 2013 D8Tue, Jan 22, 2013 - Wed, Jan 23, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152024
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 PM CST TUE JAN 15 2013
   
   VALID 171200Z - 231200Z
   
   AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE SE STATES ON D3/THU
   AND D4/FRI WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH REMAINS FARTHER N. THIS
   PRIMARY TROUGH WILL COVER THE N-CNTRL AND NERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS
   AND IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
   OVER THE WRN CONUS SLOWS THE OVERALL PATTERN PROGRESSION. THE UPPER
   RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH BOTH
   FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO GRADUAL WARMING OVER THE WRN CONUS. 
   
   OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS COASTAL SRN CA FOR MOST OF THE
   PERIOD BUT THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT
   MODEST AT BEST. REGARDLESS...PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING AND
   ASSOCIATED POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY MAY GRADUALLY ACT TO CURE FINER
   FUELS AND LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MARGINAL OR CRITICAL AREAS AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 01/15/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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