Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 16, 2013

Updated: Wed Jan 16 21:04:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 16, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 16, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 16, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 16, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 16, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 16, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 16, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Jan 18, 2013 - Sat, Jan 19, 2013 D6Mon, Jan 21, 2013 - Tue, Jan 22, 2013
D4Sat, Jan 19, 2013 - Sun, Jan 20, 2013 D7Tue, Jan 22, 2013 - Wed, Jan 23, 2013
D5Sun, Jan 20, 2013 - Mon, Jan 21, 2013 D8Wed, Jan 23, 2013 - Thu, Jan 24, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162103
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013
   
   VALID 181200Z - 241200Z
   
   THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
   THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MAINTAINED
   ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
   CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR GRADUAL
   WARMING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD AIR
   ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. 
   
   WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS COASTAL SRN CA BUT THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD
   KEEP THE OVERALL INTENSITY LOW AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST
   WINDS ISOLATED. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING AND
   ASSOCIATED POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY MAY GRADUALLY ACT TO CURE FINER
   FUELS AND LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MARGINAL OR CRITICAL AREAS AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 01/16/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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