Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 17, 2013

Updated: Thu Jan 17 19:42:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 17, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 17, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 17, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 17, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 17, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 17, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 17, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Jan 19, 2013 - Sun, Jan 20, 2013 D6Tue, Jan 22, 2013 - Wed, Jan 23, 2013
D4Sun, Jan 20, 2013 - Mon, Jan 21, 2013 D7Wed, Jan 23, 2013 - Thu, Jan 24, 2013
D5Mon, Jan 21, 2013 - Tue, Jan 22, 2013 D8Thu, Jan 24, 2013 - Fri, Jan 25, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 171941
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CST THU JAN 17 2013
   
   VALID 191200Z - 251200Z
   
   GENERALLY STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
   PERIOD WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS
   AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
   DEPICT A POTENTIAL BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A TRANSITION TO
   A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BEGINNING ON D6/TUE BUT SUBSEQUENT MODELS
   RUNS WITH THE SIMILAR FORECASTS ARE STILL NEEDED TO INCREASE THE
   CONFIDENCE OF THAT SCENARIO. EVEN IF THAT OCCURS...THE LARGE-SCALE
   WIND-DRIVEN FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
   
   ...COASTAL SRN CA...
   SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A PRESSURE
   GRADIENT FAVORABLE FOR OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST D5/MON.
   MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL
   INTENSITY LOW AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED.
   CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AT OR JUST BELOW
   CRITICAL RH VALUES IS HIGH. WHILE THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
   FAVOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...UNFAVORABLE FUELS
   CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY HIGHLIGHTED AREAS. CONCERN EXISTS THAT
   PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING AND ASSOCIATED POOR OVERNIGHT
   RECOVERY MAY GRADUALLY ACT TO CURE FINER FUELS AND LEAD TO SOME FIRE
   WEATHER CONCERNS BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO LARGE TO INTRODUCE ANY
   HIGHLIGHTS.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 01/17/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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