Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Sat, Jan 19, 2013 - Sun, Jan 20, 2013 | D6 | Tue, Jan 22, 2013 - Wed, Jan 23, 2013 |
| D4 | Sun, Jan 20, 2013 - Mon, Jan 21, 2013 | D7 | Wed, Jan 23, 2013 - Thu, Jan 24, 2013 |
| D5 | Mon, Jan 21, 2013 - Tue, Jan 22, 2013 | D8 | Thu, Jan 24, 2013 - Fri, Jan 25, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 171941 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CST THU JAN 17 2013 VALID 191200Z - 251200Z GENERALLY STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO DEPICT A POTENTIAL BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BEGINNING ON D6/TUE BUT SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS WITH THE SIMILAR FORECASTS ARE STILL NEEDED TO INCREASE THE CONFIDENCE OF THAT SCENARIO. EVEN IF THAT OCCURS...THE LARGE-SCALE WIND-DRIVEN FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ...COASTAL SRN CA... SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORABLE FOR OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST D5/MON. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL INTENSITY LOW AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED. CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AT OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL RH VALUES IS HIGH. WHILE THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...UNFAVORABLE FUELS CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY HIGHLIGHTED AREAS. CONCERN EXISTS THAT PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING AND ASSOCIATED POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY MAY GRADUALLY ACT TO CURE FINER FUELS AND LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO LARGE TO INTRODUCE ANY HIGHLIGHTS. ..MOSIER.. 01/17/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT