Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 18, 2013

Updated: Fri Jan 18 19:28:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 18, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 18, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 18, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 18, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 18, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 18, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 18, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sun, Jan 20, 2013 - Mon, Jan 21, 2013 D6Wed, Jan 23, 2013 - Thu, Jan 24, 2013
D4Mon, Jan 21, 2013 - Tue, Jan 22, 2013 D7Thu, Jan 24, 2013 - Fri, Jan 25, 2013
D5Tue, Jan 22, 2013 - Wed, Jan 23, 2013 D8Fri, Jan 25, 2013 - Sat, Jan 26, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 181926
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2013
   
   VALID 201200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...D3/SUN THROUGH D4/MON - COASTAL SRN CA...
   A MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL MAKE LITTLE EWD PROGRESS OVER THE PAC COAST
   DURING THE D3-D4 PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
   WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND AID IN WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS
   ACROSS COASTAL SRN CA. WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR MIN RH
   VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY OCCURRING AFTER
   SUNSET. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LOW RH...WEAK SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   WILL PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ...D6/WED - CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   THE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT ON
   D6/WED...WHICH WILL AID IN SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
   CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
   REGIME...FAVORING RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S JUXTAPOSED WITH
   SUSTAINED W-SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 10-20 MPH. GIVEN FAVORABLE
   MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT...A LOW END ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT APPEARS PROBABLE.
   
   ..GARNER.. 01/18/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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