Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 19, 2013

Updated: Sat Jan 19 19:43:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 19, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 19, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 19, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 19, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 19, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 19, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 19, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Mon, Jan 21, 2013 - Tue, Jan 22, 2013 D6Thu, Jan 24, 2013 - Fri, Jan 25, 2013
D4Tue, Jan 22, 2013 - Wed, Jan 23, 2013 D7Fri, Jan 25, 2013 - Sat, Jan 26, 2013
D5Wed, Jan 23, 2013 - Thu, Jan 24, 2013 D8Sat, Jan 26, 2013 - Sun, Jan 27, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 191941
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CST SAT JAN 19 2013
   
   VALID 211200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...MON/D3 - COASTAL RANGE AND FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
   HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
   OFFSHORE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL RANGES AND FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA.
   DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
   TEENS...WEAK SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE ATTM.
   
   ...WED/D5 THROUGH THU/D6 - CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WRN CONUS ON
   WED. AS THIS HAPPENS...INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR SURFACE
   LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
   INCREASING W-SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH...AND AID IN ENHANCED
   DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT. AS
   A RESULT...LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ON THU/D6...A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL
   CONUS...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
   NLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT...WHILE WLY
   WINDS UP TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE
   WINDS COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE TEENS MAY PROMPT FUTURE
   OUTLOOKS TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO CRITICAL.
   
   ...FRI/D7 THROUGH SAT/D8 - TEXAS EWD INTO THE SERN CONUS...
   A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON FRI...AND
   THEN ADVANCE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS BY SAT. STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS
   AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY OCCUR...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES AND
   QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF FIRE
   WEATHER PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ..GARNER.. 01/19/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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