Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 20, 2013

Updated: Sun Jan 20 19:40:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 20, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 20, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 20, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 20, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 20, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 20, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 20, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Jan 22, 2013 - Wed, Jan 23, 2013 D6Fri, Jan 25, 2013 - Sat, Jan 26, 2013
D4Wed, Jan 23, 2013 - Thu, Jan 24, 2013 D7Sat, Jan 26, 2013 - Sun, Jan 27, 2013
D5Thu, Jan 24, 2013 - Fri, Jan 25, 2013 D8Sun, Jan 27, 2013 - Mon, Jan 28, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 201938
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 PM CST SUN JAN 20 2013
   
   VALID 221200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...TUE/D3 - COASTAL RANGES AND FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL AID IN CONTINUED
   WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL RANGES AND FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA
   DURING TUE MORNING. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM/DRY LOW-LEVEL
   AIRMASS...WEAK WIND SPEEDS WILL PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF FIRE
   WEATHER PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ...TUE/D3 - SRN GA...NRN SECTIONS OF FL AND THE PANHANDLE...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL FAVOR NELY WINDS
   SUSTAINED NEAR 10 MPH OVER SRN GA INTO NRN SECTIONS OF FL AND THE
   PANHANDLE. WITH MIN RH VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...WED/D4 - CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ON WED.
   AS THIS OCCURS...WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN SURFACE LEE TROUGH
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL LOCALLY STRENGTHEN TO
   15-20 MPH...WHILE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ANTECEDENT
   AIRMASS WILL FAVOR MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THESE
   CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...THU/D5- SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG/AMPLIFY OVER THE
   CNTRL CONUS ON THU...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
   ADVANCE SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
   FRONT WILL LIKELY YIELD BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY THAT IS UNFAVORABLE
   FOR ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...RH VALUES
   IN THE TEENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH W-NWLY WINDS FROM
   15-20 MPH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ...FRI/D6 THROUGH SAT/D7 - TEXAS EWD INTO THE SERN CONUS...
   A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN CONUS ON FRI AND
   SAT...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES S ACROSS TX ON
   FRI...AND THEN ACROSS THE SERN CONUS BY SAT. A DRY POST FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND NLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER
   TX BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN CONUS
   AND FL ON SAT. HOWEVER...QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND
   INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE
   ATTM.
   
   ..GARNER.. 01/20/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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