Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Wed, Jan 23, 2013 - Thu, Jan 24, 2013 | D6 | Sat, Jan 26, 2013 - Sun, Jan 27, 2013 |
| D4 | Thu, Jan 24, 2013 - Fri, Jan 25, 2013 | D7 | Sun, Jan 27, 2013 - Mon, Jan 28, 2013 |
| D5 | Fri, Jan 25, 2013 - Sat, Jan 26, 2013 | D8 | Mon, Jan 28, 2013 - Tue, Jan 29, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 212033 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CST MON JAN 21 2013 VALID 231200Z - 291200Z UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY /D4-D5/. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE CNTRL-SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE LATEST MODELS EXHIBIT LIMITED STRENGTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS PRECLUDE A LOWER PROBABILITY AREA ATTM. INCREASING H7 WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS THE MIDWEST UPPER DISTURBANCE TIGHTENS THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS KS/OK. AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE BACKGROUND DROUGHT/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. BY THIS WEEKEND...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY BUT GENERALLY SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST AND EAST COASTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. IF MODEL CONTINUITY IS MAINTAINED REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER PATTERN...AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED OVER THE CNTRL-SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY /D6/. ..SMITH.. 01/21/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT