Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 21, 2013

Updated: Mon Jan 21 20:34:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 21, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 21, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 21, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 21, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 21, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 21, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 21, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Jan 23, 2013 - Thu, Jan 24, 2013 D6Sat, Jan 26, 2013 - Sun, Jan 27, 2013
D4Thu, Jan 24, 2013 - Fri, Jan 25, 2013 D7Sun, Jan 27, 2013 - Mon, Jan 28, 2013
D5Fri, Jan 25, 2013 - Sat, Jan 26, 2013 D8Mon, Jan 28, 2013 - Tue, Jan 29, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212033
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CST MON JAN 21 2013
   
   VALID 231200Z - 291200Z
   
   UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
   DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
   APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY /D4-D5/.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A
   LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE CNTRL-SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
   BUT THE LATEST MODELS EXHIBIT LIMITED STRENGTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER
   FLOW.  PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS PRECLUDE A LOWER PROBABILITY AREA
   ATTM.  
   INCREASING H7 WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS THE
   MIDWEST UPPER DISTURBANCE TIGHTENS THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT
   ACROSS KS/OK.  AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE BACKGROUND DROUGHT/DRY AIRMASS
   IN PLACE.  
   BY THIS WEEKEND...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY BUT
   GENERALLY SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST AND EAST COASTS WITH AN
   UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.  IF MODEL CONTINUITY IS MAINTAINED
   REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER PATTERN...AN ENHANCED FIRE
   WEATHER RISK AREA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED OVER THE CNTRL-SRN HIGH
   PLAINS ON SATURDAY /D6/.
   
   ..SMITH.. 01/21/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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