Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 22, 2013

Updated: Tue Jan 22 21:45:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 22, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 22, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 22, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 22, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 22, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 22, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 22, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Jan 24, 2013 - Fri, Jan 25, 2013 D6Sun, Jan 27, 2013 - Mon, Jan 28, 2013
D4Fri, Jan 25, 2013 - Sat, Jan 26, 2013 D7Mon, Jan 28, 2013 - Tue, Jan 29, 2013
D5Sat, Jan 26, 2013 - Sun, Jan 27, 2013 D8Tue, Jan 29, 2013 - Wed, Jan 30, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222143
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2013
   
   VALID 241200Z - 301200Z
   
   THE UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER
   DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
   AND NORTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.  A MODERATE BELT OF H7 FLOW WILL
   OVERSPREAD A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND MAY LEAD TO AN AREA
   OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY /D3/.  SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
   EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY /D4-D5/.  ENSEMBLE MODEL
   GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS BY
   SUNDAY WITH A MODIFYING AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...LATE IN THE EXTENDED
   PERIOD --MOST PROBABLE ON MONDAY /D7/-- IT APPEARS A LEE TROUGH WILL
   DEVELOP AND STRONGER FLOW FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW RH/STRONG WINDS.  MODEL
   VARIABILITY AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES A HIGHER
   PROBABILITY AREA OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..SMITH.. 01/22/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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