Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 28, 2013

Updated: Mon Jan 28 21:05:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 28, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 28, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 28, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 28, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 28, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 28, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 28, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Jan 30, 2013 - Thu, Jan 31, 2013 D6Sat, Feb 02, 2013 - Sun, Feb 03, 2013
D4Thu, Jan 31, 2013 - Fri, Feb 01, 2013 D7Sun, Feb 03, 2013 - Mon, Feb 04, 2013
D5Fri, Feb 01, 2013 - Sat, Feb 02, 2013 D8Mon, Feb 04, 2013 - Tue, Feb 05, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282103
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013
   
   VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
   
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL WEAKEN EARLY IN
   THE PERIOD...AND UPSTREAM SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL ACT TO
   REINFORCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
   AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 
   FARTHER WEST...UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE WRN U.S. IN WAKE OF
   THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.  FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL SEEMINGLY
   BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTH TX ON WEDNESDAY DURING THE EXTENDED
   PERIOD.
   
   ...TX LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SOME LINGERING RISK FOR LOWER RH AND
   MODERATELY STRONG WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA.  THE
   LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS
   DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..SMITH.. 01/28/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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