Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 31, 2013

Updated: Thu Jan 31 21:01:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 31, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 31, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 31, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 31, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 31, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 31, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 31, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Feb 02, 2013 - Sun, Feb 03, 2013 D6Tue, Feb 05, 2013 - Wed, Feb 06, 2013
D4Sun, Feb 03, 2013 - Mon, Feb 04, 2013 D7Wed, Feb 06, 2013 - Thu, Feb 07, 2013
D5Mon, Feb 04, 2013 - Tue, Feb 05, 2013 D8Thu, Feb 07, 2013 - Fri, Feb 08, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 312059
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013
   
   VALID 021200Z - 081200Z
   
   THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND TRANSITION FROM A
   MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
   WEST...TO A PROGRESSIVE AND LOWER AMPLITUDE REGIME OVER THE CONUS. 
   WEAK LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY
   /D4/ AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY /D7/.  SOME ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IF
   AN EXAGGERATED RENDITION OF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS. 
   NEVERTHELESS...MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO VARY
   SUBSTANTIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
   HIGH IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS...PRECLUDING AN AREA/S FOR THE TIME BEING.
   
   ..SMITH.. 01/31/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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