Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 2, 2013

Updated: Sat Feb 2 19:30:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 2, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Mon, Feb 04, 2013 - Tue, Feb 05, 2013 D6Thu, Feb 07, 2013 - Fri, Feb 08, 2013
D4Tue, Feb 05, 2013 - Wed, Feb 06, 2013 D7Fri, Feb 08, 2013 - Sat, Feb 09, 2013
D5Wed, Feb 06, 2013 - Thu, Feb 07, 2013 D8Sat, Feb 09, 2013 - Sun, Feb 10, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 021929
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CST SAT FEB 02 2013
   
   VALID 041200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...D5/WED - ERN NM...
   MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE
   PASSAGE OF MINOR UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL AID IN SURFACE LEE
   TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WED. W-SWLY SURFACE
   WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ERN NM...WHILE
   MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT
   MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS. THOUGH THESE CONDITIONS WOULD
   SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT...FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
   WILL NOT BE ASSIGNED ATTM DUE TO THE SMALL SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE
   THREAT. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE UPGRADE WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...D7/FRI - ERN NM...
   AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE WRN CONUS ON
   FRI...WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW
   ACROSS ERN NM...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM
   15-20 MPH. HOWEVER...CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE SPOTTY AT
   BEST. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEFER ANY UPGRADE TO FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...D8/SAT - SRN PLAINS...
   MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH EJECTING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON SAT. AS THIS TAKES
   PLACE...DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS W TX.
   HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE OF SUSTAINED WLY WIND SPEEDS IS IN QUESTION.
   GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE
   INTRODUCED ATTM.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/02/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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