Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 3, 2013

Updated: Sun Feb 3 20:04:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 3, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Feb 05, 2013 - Wed, Feb 06, 2013 D6Fri, Feb 08, 2013 - Sat, Feb 09, 2013
D4Wed, Feb 06, 2013 - Thu, Feb 07, 2013 D7Sat, Feb 09, 2013 - Sun, Feb 10, 2013
D5Thu, Feb 07, 2013 - Fri, Feb 08, 2013 D8Sun, Feb 10, 2013 - Mon, Feb 11, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032002
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CST SUN FEB 03 2013
   
   VALID 051200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...D4/WED - ERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...
   WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE HIGH PLAINS ON WED. AS THIS OCCURS...SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM
   15-20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND THE TX
   PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT
   DISAGREE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYNESS...WITH THE GFS
   SUPPORTING MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS...AND THE SREF/WRF BASED
   MEMBERS FAVORING MIN RH IN THE 20S. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
   RH...FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED ATTM.
   
   ...D6/FRI THROUGH D8/SUN - SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
   POSITIONED OVER THE WRN CONUS ON FRI/D6. THIS WILL LEAD TO FALLING
   HEIGHTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
   SLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE TOO HUMID
   TO INTRODUCE FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ON SAT/D7...MIDLEVEL SWLYS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES.
   LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER ERN CO...WHICH WILL AID IN
   CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF SWLY SURFACE WINDS. INCREASING WIND
   SPEEDS COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING/DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. THUS...A 40 PERCENT DELINEATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
   OVER ERN NM/WRN TX NWD INTO SERN CO AND WRN KS.
   
   BY SUN/D8...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE ARE
   FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A
   PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS TX...WITH MODERATE TO
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE FROM SERN NM INTO
   CNTRL TX. IN ADDITION...THE DRY DOWNSLOPE REGIME MAY SUPPORT
   CRITICAL RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN ELEVATED
   THREAT FOR WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/03/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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