Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Tue, Feb 05, 2013 - Wed, Feb 06, 2013 | D6 | Fri, Feb 08, 2013 - Sat, Feb 09, 2013 |
| D4 | Wed, Feb 06, 2013 - Thu, Feb 07, 2013 | D7 | Sat, Feb 09, 2013 - Sun, Feb 10, 2013 |
| D5 | Thu, Feb 07, 2013 - Fri, Feb 08, 2013 | D8 | Sun, Feb 10, 2013 - Mon, Feb 11, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 032002 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CST SUN FEB 03 2013 VALID 051200Z - 111200Z ...D4/WED - ERN NM...TX PANHANDLE... WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON WED. AS THIS OCCURS...SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT DISAGREE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYNESS...WITH THE GFS SUPPORTING MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS...AND THE SREF/WRF BASED MEMBERS FAVORING MIN RH IN THE 20S. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN RH...FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED ATTM. ...D6/FRI THROUGH D8/SUN - SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING POSITIONED OVER THE WRN CONUS ON FRI/D6. THIS WILL LEAD TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE TOO HUMID TO INTRODUCE FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ATTM. ON SAT/D7...MIDLEVEL SWLYS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER ERN CO...WHICH WILL AID IN CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF SWLY SURFACE WINDS. INCREASING WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING/DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THUS...A 40 PERCENT DELINEATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED OVER ERN NM/WRN TX NWD INTO SERN CO AND WRN KS. BY SUN/D8...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS TX...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE FROM SERN NM INTO CNTRL TX. IN ADDITION...THE DRY DOWNSLOPE REGIME MAY SUPPORT CRITICAL RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES. ..GARNER.. 02/03/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT