Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Wed, Feb 06, 2013 - Thu, Feb 07, 2013 | D6 | Sat, Feb 09, 2013 - Sun, Feb 10, 2013 |
| D4 | Thu, Feb 07, 2013 - Fri, Feb 08, 2013 | D7 | Sun, Feb 10, 2013 - Mon, Feb 11, 2013 |
| D5 | Fri, Feb 08, 2013 - Sat, Feb 09, 2013 | D8 | Mon, Feb 11, 2013 - Tue, Feb 12, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 041941 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CST MON FEB 04 2013 VALID 061200Z - 121200Z ...D3/WED - E-CNTRL/NERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE... WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/LEE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WED. THIS WILL AID IN ENHANCING SWLY SURFACE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/NERN NM INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH. IN ADDITION...WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAVOR MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ...D5/FRI THROUGH D7/SUN - NM...WRN/CNTRL TX...SERN CO... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE WRN CONUS ON FRI/D5. FALLING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW ACROSS NM /SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH/...WHILE MODERATING TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TOWARD AFTERNOON RH VALUES FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON SAT/D6...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES...WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS/TROUGHING OCCURRING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WILL BECOME PROBABLE FROM THE TX TRANS-PECOS NWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO SERN CO. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL RH VALUES. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SLOWED THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO PAST RUNS. THUS...AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL WILL BE DEFERRED TO FUTURE OUTLOOKS IN ORDER TO FURTHER ASSESS MODEL TRENDS. BY SUN/D7...A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS TX. SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 10-20 MPH AND RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM SERN NM INTO CNTRL TX. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP...THOUGH FUELS MAY BE MOIST OVER PART OF THE REGION DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN DURING THE PRECEDING 24 HOURS. ...D7/SUN AND D8/MON - COASTAL MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA... DEEP-LAYER OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SRN CA BEHIND THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS TROUGH ON SUN/D7 AND MON/D8. AS A RESULT...AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY OCCUR ON MON DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND LOWERING RH VALUES. ..GARNER.. 02/04/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT