Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 4, 2013

Updated: Mon Feb 4 19:42:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 4, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Feb 06, 2013 - Thu, Feb 07, 2013 D6Sat, Feb 09, 2013 - Sun, Feb 10, 2013
D4Thu, Feb 07, 2013 - Fri, Feb 08, 2013 D7Sun, Feb 10, 2013 - Mon, Feb 11, 2013
D5Fri, Feb 08, 2013 - Sat, Feb 09, 2013 D8Mon, Feb 11, 2013 - Tue, Feb 12, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 041941
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CST MON FEB 04 2013
   
   VALID 061200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...D3/WED - E-CNTRL/NERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE...
   WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/LEE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WED. THIS WILL AID IN ENHANCING SWLY SURFACE
   WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/NERN NM INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH.
   IN ADDITION...WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY DEEP
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL FAVOR MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT.
   THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...D5/FRI THROUGH D7/SUN - NM...WRN/CNTRL TX...SERN CO...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE WRN CONUS ON FRI/D5.
   FALLING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW ACROSS NM /SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 15
   MPH/...WHILE MODERATING TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TOWARD AFTERNOON RH
   VALUES FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ON SAT/D6...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD TOWARD THE SRN
   ROCKIES...WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS/TROUGHING OCCURRING OVER THE
   CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH
   WILL BECOME PROBABLE FROM THE TX TRANS-PECOS NWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO
   SERN CO. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL
   FOR CRITICAL RH VALUES. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS HAVE SLOWED THE
   EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO PAST RUNS.
   THUS...AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL WILL BE DEFERRED TO FUTURE OUTLOOKS IN
   ORDER TO FURTHER ASSESS MODEL TRENDS.
   
   BY SUN/D7...A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AT
   THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS TX. SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS
   FROM 10-20 MPH AND RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE
   IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM SERN NM INTO CNTRL TX. ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP...THOUGH FUELS MAY BE MOIST OVER PART
   OF THE REGION DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN DURING THE PRECEDING 24
   HOURS.
   
   ...D7/SUN AND D8/MON - COASTAL MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
   DEEP-LAYER OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SRN CA BEHIND
   THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS TROUGH ON SUN/D7 AND MON/D8. AS A RESULT...AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY OCCUR ON MON DUE TO STRENGTHENING
   WINDS AND LOWERING RH VALUES.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/04/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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