Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 5, 2013

Updated: Tue Feb 5 19:27:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 5, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Feb 07, 2013 - Fri, Feb 08, 2013 D6Sun, Feb 10, 2013 - Mon, Feb 11, 2013
D4Fri, Feb 08, 2013 - Sat, Feb 09, 2013 D7Mon, Feb 11, 2013 - Tue, Feb 12, 2013
D5Sat, Feb 09, 2013 - Sun, Feb 10, 2013 D8Tue, Feb 12, 2013 - Wed, Feb 13, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 051925
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2013
   
   VALID 071200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...D4/FRI - SERN AZ...SWRN/CNTRL/NERN NM...SERN CO...
   AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE WRN CONUS ON FRI.
   STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING
   DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH WILL AID IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
   FROM 15-25 MPH OVER SERN AZ NEWD INTO NERN NM AND SERN CO. AT THIS
   TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL BE
   SPOTTY AT BEST. THUS...THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT HAS BEEN DELINEATED
   WITH A MARGINAL 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA.
   
   ...D5/SAT - SRN/ERN NM...SERN CO...W TX...
   AN UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL AID IN LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SAT. THIS...COMBINED WITH
   INCREASING MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND
   SPEEDS FROM 15-25 MPH OVER SRN/ERN NM...SERN CO AND W TX. MOST
   PROBABLE AREA FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES APPEARS TO BE OVER NM
   ATTM. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEFERRED TO FUTURE
   OUTLOOKS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF
   /MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION/ AND GFS /SLOWER SOLUTION/ WITH AN
   EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.
   
   ...D6/SUN - ERN NM...WRN/CNTRL TX...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK...
   SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE INTO SUN.
   HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES AGREE ON A PACIFIC COLD
   FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL
   CONDITIONS FROM ERN NM INTO WRN/CNTRL TX AND SWRN OK WILL BE
   CHARACTERIZED BY SUSTAINED WLY SURFACE WINDS EXCEEDING 20 MPH WITH
   RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN
   ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/05/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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