Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 6, 2013

Updated: Wed Feb 6 19:23:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 6, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Feb 08, 2013 - Sat, Feb 09, 2013 D6Mon, Feb 11, 2013 - Tue, Feb 12, 2013
D4Sat, Feb 09, 2013 - Sun, Feb 10, 2013 D7Tue, Feb 12, 2013 - Wed, Feb 13, 2013
D5Sun, Feb 10, 2013 - Mon, Feb 11, 2013 D8Wed, Feb 13, 2013 - Thu, Feb 14, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 061921
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0121 PM CST WED FEB 06 2013
   
   VALID 081200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...D3/FRI - SERN AZ...SWRN/CNTRL/NERN NM...SERN CO...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WRN CONUS ON FRI. INCREASING
   MIDLEVEL SWLYS AND HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
   WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 15-25
   MPH OVER SERN AZ NEWD INTO NERN NM AND SERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...CRITICAL RH IS FORECAST TO BE SPOTTY ACROSS THE
   AREA...WITH VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 15-25 PERCENT. THUS...A
   MARGINAL 40 PERCENT DELINEATION WILL BE MAINTAINED.
   
   ...D4/SAT - SRN/ERN NM...SERN CO...W TX...
   PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NM AND THE TX TRANS-PECOS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
   CRITICAL. MODEL GUIDANCE ADVANCES A TROUGH EWD TOWARD THE SRN/CNTRL
   ROCKIES ON SAT. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE
   PLACE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE MODERATE/STRONG MIDLEVEL
   SWLYS /30-45 KT AT 700 MB/ SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
   WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM 20-35 MPH OVER THE ERN
   HALF OF NM...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S COMBINED
   WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME WILL AID IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE
   LOW TO MID TEENS.
   
   SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL RISK AREA...S-SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 15-25
   MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN/ERN TX TRANS-PECOS NWD
   INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND SERN CO. UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION
   OF A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH OVER W TX RESULTS IN LESS PREDICTABILITY
   REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYNESS. HOWEVER...MODEL
   GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RH VALUES IN THE TEENS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ...D5/SUN - SERN NM...WRN/CNTRL TX...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE ARE
   EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
   MID/UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUN. AS THIS OCCURS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
   WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS TX. POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
   CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 50F IN SERN NM TO THE 60S IN
   CNTRL TX...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND
   SUSTAINED WLY WIND SPEEDS FROM 15-20 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH THE
   THREAT BECOMING MORE MARGINAL TOWARD CNTRL TX DUE TO POSSIBLE
   RAINFALL OCCURRING DURING THE PRECEDING 24 HOURS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/06/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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