Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 7, 2013

Updated: Thu Feb 7 19:34:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 7, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Feb 09, 2013 - Sun, Feb 10, 2013 D6Tue, Feb 12, 2013 - Wed, Feb 13, 2013
D4Sun, Feb 10, 2013 - Mon, Feb 11, 2013 D7Wed, Feb 13, 2013 - Thu, Feb 14, 2013
D5Mon, Feb 11, 2013 - Tue, Feb 12, 2013 D8Thu, Feb 14, 2013 - Fri, Feb 15, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 071932
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 PM CST THU FEB 07 2013
   
   VALID 091200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...D3/SAT - SRN/ERN NM...W TX...SERN CO...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES ON
   SAT...WITH A 40+ KT 700 MB JET SPREADING ACROSS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
   AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM THE BIG BEND INTO SERN CO. THIS PATTERN IS
   ANALOGOUS WITH PAST WILDFIRE EVENTS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   THUS...A CRITICAL RISK AREA IS MAINTAINED FROM THE TX TRANS-PECOS
   NWD INTO ERN NM AND THE FAR WRN TX PANHANDLE. OVER THIS
   AREA...SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-40 MPH /WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/ WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID
   TEENS.
   
   OVER THE REMAINDER OF W TX INTO SERN CO...SLY SURFACE WINDS FROM
   20-30 MPH WILL BE FAVORED DURING MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
   DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL
   BE POSSIBLE OVER SERN CO...AIDING IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE
   TEENS AND RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. OVER W TX...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PSEUDO-DRYLINE MAY
   SURGE EWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...RH
   VALUES COULD RAPIDLY FALL TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND YIELD A FEW
   HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...D4/SUN - ERN NM...WRN/CNTRL TX...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN/CNTRL OK...
   AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON
   SUN...WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW. AS
   THIS OCCURS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS. POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS FROM ERN NM INTO WRN/CNTRL TX AND
   SWRN/CNTRL OK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
   60S...AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND SUSTAINED WLY
   WIND SPEEDS FROM 15-25 MPH. AS A RESULT...AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
   HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING
   ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE 40 PERCENT DELINEATION...WHICH COULD
   MOISTEN FUELS AND LOWER THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ...D5/MON - TX TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN...SERN NM...
   THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO BECOME
   POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON MON. MODERATELY STRONG
   MIDLEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS A
   LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS SITUATED FROM THE BIG BEND NWD INTO SERN NM.
   THIS WILL FAVOR THE JUXTAPOSITION OF SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS
   FROM 15-20 MPH WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS. AS A
   RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/07/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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