Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Sat, Feb 09, 2013 - Sun, Feb 10, 2013 | D6 | Tue, Feb 12, 2013 - Wed, Feb 13, 2013 |
| D4 | Sun, Feb 10, 2013 - Mon, Feb 11, 2013 | D7 | Wed, Feb 13, 2013 - Thu, Feb 14, 2013 |
| D5 | Mon, Feb 11, 2013 - Tue, Feb 12, 2013 | D8 | Thu, Feb 14, 2013 - Fri, Feb 15, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 071932 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID 091200Z - 151200Z ...D3/SAT - SRN/ERN NM...W TX...SERN CO... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES ON SAT...WITH A 40+ KT 700 MB JET SPREADING ACROSS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM THE BIG BEND INTO SERN CO. THIS PATTERN IS ANALOGOUS WITH PAST WILDFIRE EVENTS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THUS...A CRITICAL RISK AREA IS MAINTAINED FROM THE TX TRANS-PECOS NWD INTO ERN NM AND THE FAR WRN TX PANHANDLE. OVER THIS AREA...SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-40 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF W TX INTO SERN CO...SLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WILL BE FAVORED DURING MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SERN CO...AIDING IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. OVER W TX...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PSEUDO-DRYLINE MAY SURGE EWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...RH VALUES COULD RAPIDLY FALL TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND YIELD A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ...D4/SUN - ERN NM...WRN/CNTRL TX...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN/CNTRL OK... AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUN...WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW. AS THIS OCCURS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS FROM ERN NM INTO WRN/CNTRL TX AND SWRN/CNTRL OK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S...AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND SUSTAINED WLY WIND SPEEDS FROM 15-25 MPH. AS A RESULT...AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE 40 PERCENT DELINEATION...WHICH COULD MOISTEN FUELS AND LOWER THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ...D5/MON - TX TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN...SERN NM... THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON MON. MODERATELY STRONG MIDLEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS SITUATED FROM THE BIG BEND NWD INTO SERN NM. THIS WILL FAVOR THE JUXTAPOSITION OF SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..GARNER.. 02/07/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT