Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 11, 2013

Updated: Mon Feb 11 20:46:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Feb 13, 2013 - Thu, Feb 14, 2013 D6Sat, Feb 16, 2013 - Sun, Feb 17, 2013
D4Thu, Feb 14, 2013 - Fri, Feb 15, 2013 D7Sun, Feb 17, 2013 - Mon, Feb 18, 2013
D5Fri, Feb 15, 2013 - Sat, Feb 16, 2013 D8Mon, Feb 18, 2013 - Tue, Feb 19, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112044
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013
   
   VALID 131200Z - 191200Z
   
   NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS ON D3/WED AND D4/THU. AN
   UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WRN CONUS ON D5/FRI WITH A
   RESULTANT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER PATTERN. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
   LIKELY EXIST ACROSS THE ERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE
   THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN...MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH A
   TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.
   
   THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
   CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING ACROSS THE WRN
   CONUS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL SRN CA AS A SURFACE
   HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ATTM...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT DOES NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT WITH MOST OF THE
   STRONG WINDS CONFINED TO THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. 
   
   ON D7/SUN...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS PROG LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG SWLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE
   IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE PROBABILITIES BUT AT LEAST MARGINAL
   PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS SHOW CONSISTENCY.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 02/11/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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