Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 12, 2013

Updated: Tue Feb 12 20:49:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 12, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 12, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 12, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 12, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 12, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 12, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 12, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Feb 14, 2013 - Fri, Feb 15, 2013 D6Sun, Feb 17, 2013 - Mon, Feb 18, 2013
D4Fri, Feb 15, 2013 - Sat, Feb 16, 2013 D7Mon, Feb 18, 2013 - Tue, Feb 19, 2013
D5Sat, Feb 16, 2013 - Sun, Feb 17, 2013 D8Tue, Feb 19, 2013 - Wed, Feb 20, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122048
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2013
   
   VALID 141200Z - 201200Z
   
   MODEST UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD WILL TRANSLATE EWD AND AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE
   MOVING OVER THE WRN CONUS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD...SURFACE
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...FAVORING OFFSHORE
   FLOW ACROSS SRN CA. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST
   D4/FRI AND EARLY D5/SAT BUT MOIST FUELS PRECLUDE A FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. 
   
   OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF
   THE E COAST D6/SUN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING
   ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS ON D7/MON. MODEL
   GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WLY FLOW
   AHEAD OF THE D7/MON TROUGH WITH STRONG SLY/SWLY WINDS ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH FOR AN HIGHLIGHTED
   AREA...OWING PRIMARILY TO VARYING TROUGH STRENGTH IN THE MREF.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 02/12/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT