Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Fri, Feb 15, 2013 - Sat, Feb 16, 2013 | D6 | Mon, Feb 18, 2013 - Tue, Feb 19, 2013 |
| D4 | Sat, Feb 16, 2013 - Sun, Feb 17, 2013 | D7 | Tue, Feb 19, 2013 - Wed, Feb 20, 2013 |
| D5 | Sun, Feb 17, 2013 - Mon, Feb 18, 2013 | D8 | Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - Thu, Feb 21, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 132011 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013 VALID 151200Z - 211200Z LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS ON D3/THU WILL TRANSLATE EWD AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BOTH SHIFTING EWD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON D5/SUN AND THE SRN PLAINS ON D6/MON. ...D3/FRI THROUGH EARLY D4/SAT: COASTAL SRN CA... AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WRN CONUS ON D3/FRI...SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SRN CA. OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...MOIST FUELS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT ATTM. UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH BOTH SHIFT EWD ON D4/SAT WITH RESULTANT RELAXING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ...D5/SUN: SRN HIGH PLAINS... WLY FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ON D5/SUN. THIS PATTERN FAVORS ENHANCED SWLY/SLY WINDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT NEAR CRITICAL RH VALUES ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO DELINEATE A MARGINAL THREAT AREA OVER THE REGION. UPGRADE TO CRITICAL WITHIN THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS E-CNTRL/NERN NM...MAY BE NEEDED IF MODEL OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT. ...D6/MON: FAR W TX/SW TX... STRONG WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS OK WITH GUST POTENTIAL SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED WLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. CURRENT GUIDANCE DEPICTS HIGHS AROUND 60...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR-CRITICAL RH VALUES. AS SUCH...A MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS DELINEATED. UPGRADES WITHIN THE MARGINAL RISK MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE ON WARM TEMPERATURES INCREASES. ..MOSIER.. 02/13/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT