Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 13, 2013

Updated: Wed Feb 13 20:13:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Feb 15, 2013 - Sat, Feb 16, 2013 D6Mon, Feb 18, 2013 - Tue, Feb 19, 2013
D4Sat, Feb 16, 2013 - Sun, Feb 17, 2013 D7Tue, Feb 19, 2013 - Wed, Feb 20, 2013
D5Sun, Feb 17, 2013 - Mon, Feb 18, 2013 D8Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - Thu, Feb 21, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132011
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013
   
   VALID 151200Z - 211200Z
   
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS ON D3/THU WILL
   TRANSLATE EWD AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE
   OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH
   AND UPPER RIDGE BOTH SHIFTING EWD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
   SEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON D5/SUN AND THE SRN PLAINS ON
   D6/MON. 
   
   ...D3/FRI THROUGH EARLY D4/SAT: COASTAL SRN CA...
   AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WRN CONUS ON D3/FRI...SFC HIGH
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN A TIGHT
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SRN CA. OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND 30
   MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...MOIST FUELS
   PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT ATTM. UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
   BOTH SHIFT EWD ON D4/SAT WITH RESULTANT RELAXING OF THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 
   
   ...D5/SUN: SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   WLY FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS ON D5/SUN. THIS PATTERN FAVORS ENHANCED SWLY/SLY WINDS
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT NEAR
   CRITICAL RH VALUES ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
   ENOUGH TO DELINEATE A MARGINAL THREAT AREA OVER THE REGION. UPGRADE
   TO CRITICAL WITHIN THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS E-CNTRL/NERN
   NM...MAY BE NEEDED IF MODEL OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT.  
   
   ...D6/MON: FAR W TX/SW TX...
   STRONG WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS OK
   WITH GUST POTENTIAL SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED WLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
   BASE OF THE TROUGH. CURRENT GUIDANCE DEPICTS HIGHS AROUND 60...WHICH
   SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR-CRITICAL RH VALUES. AS SUCH...A MARGINAL RISK
   AREA WAS DELINEATED. UPGRADES WITHIN THE MARGINAL RISK MAY BE NEEDED
   IF CONFIDENCE ON WARM TEMPERATURES INCREASES.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 02/13/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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