Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 14, 2013

Updated: Thu Feb 14 21:47:03 UTC 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142145
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CST THU FEB 14 2013
   
   VALID 161200Z - 221200Z
   
   EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
   PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   ERN CONUS WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
   WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES. 
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE OFFSHORE EVENT ACROSS SRN CA WILL BE
   WINDING DOWN ON D3/SAT WHILE COOL AND VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CREATING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FLORIDA.
   MEANWHILE...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
   ROCKIES AND THE RESULTING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
   A THREAT OF ELEVATED/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   ACROSS SRN NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS FROM D5/MON THROUGH THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...D3/SAT - D4/SUN: CNTRL/SRN FLORIDA...
   IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.
   WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST ON D3/SAT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
   15-20 MPH POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 30-40
   PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...CREATING
   ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED WITH
   THE WINDS...THOUGH COOL TEMPS AND ANTECEDENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER THE
   THREAT. 
   
   DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON D4/SUN AS PW VALUES DROP BELOW 0.5
   INCHES...WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 35 PERCENT
   POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER
   COMPARED TO D3/SAT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WILL STILL
   CREATE A THREAT OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   AGAIN...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS AND ANTECEDENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER THE
   THREAT.
   
   ...D3/SAT: SRN CA INTO SRN AZ/SWRN NM...
   MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN ON D3/SAT AS
   THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS AREA.
   
   MEANWHILE...STRONG LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   PARTS OF SERN AZ INTO SWRN NM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE CRITICAL
   WIND/RH THRESHOLDS MAY BE APPROACHED...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
   WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE THREAT AND NO AREA WILL BE OUTLOOKED AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ...D4/SUN - D5/MON: SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER
   TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS
   ON D4/SUN-D5/MON. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
   ROCKIES ON D4/SUN IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN
   INCREASING DRY SWLY LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONCURRENT
   CRITICAL WIND/RH...WITH THE DRIEST RH LIKELY TO RESIDE OVER ERN NM
   INTO W TX WHILE THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FURTHER EAST
   INTO NWRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE. 
   
   ON D5/MON...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR MOST OF ERN NM AND THE
   TX PANHANDLE...BUT STRONG WLY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SERN NM INTO W TX.
   DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND SPEEDS AND THE FRONTAL POSITION AT
   THIS TIME RANGE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...D7/WED: MUCH OF NM INTO FAR W TX...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA IN THE D4-D5
   RANGE...A STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GREAT BASIN
   AND MOVE INTO THE ERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION BY D7/WED. AHEAD OF
   THIS SYSTEM...VERY STRONG SWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NM INTO FAR W TX. THE WEATHER PATTERN
   DEPICTED BY NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED
   SFC WINDS OF 25-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SERN
   HALF OF NM INTO FAR W TX...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT
   POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS CAN RISE INTO THE 60S. STRONGLY CONSIDERED AN
   UPGRADE TO CRITICAL ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT WITH LINGERING QUESTIONS
   REGARDING POTENTIALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND FUELS...ALONG WITH
   INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS FORECAST RANGE...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
   LOWER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...D8/THU: SERN NM/W TX INTO SRN PLAINS...
   MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEEP
   UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A POWERFUL CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING IMMEDIATELY
   AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN VERY STRONG WLY
   SFC WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT FROM SERN NM/W TX INTO THE
   SRN PLAINS. THE RAPIDLY OCCLUDING SYSTEM CURRENTLY SHOWN IN THE
   MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD QUICKLY WRAP COLD AIR AROUND THE SFC LOW AND
   WOULD RESULT IN RATHER COOL CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL RH VALUES IN THE
   AREAS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
   THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE INHERENT
   PREDICTABILITY LIMIT AT THIS FORECAST RANGE...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO
   CRITICAL AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..DEAN.. 02/14/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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