Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 15, 2013

Updated: Fri Feb 15 21:47:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sun, Feb 17, 2013 - Mon, Feb 18, 2013 D6Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - Thu, Feb 21, 2013
D4Mon, Feb 18, 2013 - Tue, Feb 19, 2013 D7Thu, Feb 21, 2013 - Fri, Feb 22, 2013
D5Tue, Feb 19, 2013 - Wed, Feb 20, 2013 D8Fri, Feb 22, 2013 - Sat, Feb 23, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152145
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013
   
   VALID 171200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...D3/SUN: CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
   DEEP DRY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 0.15-0.25 INCH WILL
   OVERLAY THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE
   BACKSIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
   ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE DIURNALLY DEEPENING MIXED LAYER EXTENDS INTO
   DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD FRONT...RH VALUES WILL
   BECOME CRITICALLY LOW -- I.E. IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...AND PERHAPS
   UPPER TEENS. AND...WITH SUSTAINED NLY WINDS OF 10 TO BRIEFLY 15
   MPH...ALONG WITH HIGH KBDI VALUES...ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...WITH THE
   ANTICIPATED SLACKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...SFC WINDS SHOULD
   WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH...THE CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY
   STRONG WINDS OCCURRING FOR ANY LONGER THAN A BRIEF DURATION IS TOO
   LOW FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME. RECENT PRECIPITATION MAY
   ALSO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOME AREAS.
   
   ...D3/SUN-D4/MON: PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN NM AND WRN TX...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY
   THIS WEEKEND -- WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK WHILE
   AMPLIFYING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS ON D3/SUN...WITH THE RESULTANT SFC CYCLONE TAKING AN EWD AND
   THEN NEWD TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON D4/MON. STRENGTHENING
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ALONG
   WITH THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE...WILL
   SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS. THESE WINDS
   WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES TO ENHANCE THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN/ERN NM AND PARTS OF W TX ON
   D3/SUN. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE SHUNTED SWD FROM D3/SUN TO
   D4/MON -- AFFECTING SERN NM AND SWRN/W-CNTRL TX ON D4/MON -- AS A
   COLD FRONT TRAILING SW OF THE SFC LOW MOVES SWD AND IS FOLLOWED BY
   COOLER CONDITIONS AND HIGHER RH. FOR BOTH D3/SUN AND
   D4/MON...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS TOO LOW FOR
   CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF EVEN STRONGER
   DEEP FLOW ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...D5/TUE-D8/FRI: PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES EWD TO THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   A MUCH MORE POTENT TROUGH -- DIGGING SWD OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC
   WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK -- WILL EJECT EWD OVER THE SWRN STATES BY MID
   WEEK. MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
   GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
   TROUGH...INCREASING CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE ATTENDANT FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH ON
   D5/TUE...MODERATE SWLY SFC WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES TO
   SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM SERN AZ ACROSS PARTS
   OF SRN NM TO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SWRN TX.
   
   A GREATER FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ON D6/WED...WHEN
   STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERSPREADS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
   OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL LOW...AND STRONG SFC
   CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. A DRY SLOT
   WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO SERN/E-CNTRL NM AND
   SWRN TX...SUPPORTING A NARROW...N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIDTH OF THIS 
   CORRIDOR -- WHICH WILL BE SURROUNDED BY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
   HIGHER RH -- PRECLUDES A LARGER CRITICAL AREA AT THIS TIME.
   
   THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD FROM D6/WED TO
   D7/THU...AND EXTEND FROM ERN NM TO CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF SRN OK ON
   D7/THU. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DRY AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION IN THE
   WAKE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...AND STRONG DEEP FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
   HOWEVER...COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MAY
   MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW RH
   VALUES FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. AS
   SUCH...A CRITICAL AREA HAS NOT BEEN DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME ON
   D7/THU. FURTHERMORE...ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION COULD MITIGATE THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOME AREAS.
   
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY DIG SWD
   ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK...REINFORCING A BELT OF
   STRONG DEEP FLOW OVER THE AREA AMIDST AREAS OF ANTECEDENT DRY
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL
   SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES LENDS LOW
   CONFIDENCE IN AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT...THUS PRECLUDING
   PROBABILISTIC DELINEATION...FOR D8/FRI.
   
   ..COHEN.. 02/15/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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