Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 16, 2013

Updated: Sat Feb 16 21:40:03 UTC 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162138
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2013
   
   VALID 181200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...D3/MON: PORTIONS OF SERN NM...SWRN/W-CNTRL TX...
   A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
   WHILE AMPLIFYING EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. AN ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
   IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES ON
   D3/MON. A DRY AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT
   TRAILING SW OF THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT RH VALUES IN
   THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS AS TEMPERATURES WARM
   INTO THE 60S AND 70S. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
   LIKELY...AS WLY TO WNWLY WINDS OF 15 TO POTENTIALLY AROUND 20 MPH
   OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS TOO LOW FOR
   CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME...OWING TO VARIABILITY AMONGST
   DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
   
   ...D4/TUE-D6/THU: PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES EWD TO THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH MORE POTENT
   TROUGH -- DIGGING SWD OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC WATERS EARLY THIS
   UPCOMING WEEK -- WILL EJECT EWD OVER THE SWRN STATES BY MID WEEK. AS
   THE MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON
   D4/TUE...MODERATE SWLY SFC WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES TO
   SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM SERN AZ ACROSS PARTS
   OF SRN NM TO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SWRN TX.
   
   A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ON
   D5/WED...WHEN STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
   ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL LOW OVERSPREADS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. THIS
   WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY EXTEND
   INTO SERN/E-CNTRL NM AND SWRN TX...SUPPORTING A
   NARROW...N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIDTH OF THIS CORRIDOR -- WHICH WILL BE
   SURROUNDED BY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER RH -- PRECLUDES A LARGER
   CRITICAL AREA AT THIS TIME.
   
   THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD FROM D5/WED TO
   D6/THU...AND EXTEND FROM ERN NM TO CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF SRN OK ON
   D6/THU. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DRY AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION IN THE
   WAKE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...AND STRONG DEEP FLOW RESIDES OVER THE
   AREA. HOWEVER...COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
   MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW RH
   VALUES FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. AS
   SUCH...A CRITICAL AREA HAS NOT BEEN DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME ON
   D6/THU. FURTHERMORE...ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION COULD MITIGATE THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOME AREAS.
   
   ...D7/FRI-D8/SAT: PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES EWD TO THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   A SUBSET OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS MAY DIG SWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK
   INTO NEXT WEEKEND...REINFORCING A BELT OF STRONG DEEP FLOW OVER THE
   REGION AMIDST AREAS OF ANTECEDENT DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS.
   HOWEVER...DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
   OF THESE FEATURES LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT...THUS PRECLUDING PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 02/16/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT