Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 17, 2013

Updated: Sun Feb 17 21:20:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 17, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 17, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 17, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 17, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 17, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 17, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 17, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Tue, Feb 19, 2013 - Wed, Feb 20, 2013 D6Fri, Feb 22, 2013 - Sat, Feb 23, 2013
D4Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - Thu, Feb 21, 2013 D7Sat, Feb 23, 2013 - Sun, Feb 24, 2013
D5Thu, Feb 21, 2013 - Fri, Feb 22, 2013 D8Sun, Feb 24, 2013 - Mon, Feb 25, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172119
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2013
   
   VALID 191200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...D3/TUE-D5/THU: PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES EWD TO THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
   A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- DIGGING SWD OVER THE FAR E
   PACIFIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK -- THAT WILL EJECT EWD OVER THE SWRN
   STATES BY MID WEEK. ON D3/TUE...SWLY SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
   SERN AZ ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM TO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SWRN TX
   IN CONCERT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
   TROUGH. FOR D3/TUE...A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN OUTLINED COVERING FAR
   SERN AZ AND FAR SWRN NM...WHERE THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
   MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS ENHANCED CONFIDENCE IN THE COMBINATION OF SWLY
   WINDS OF 20-23 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF
   12-15 PERCENT AMIDST BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST
   COUPLE OF MONTHS.
   
   A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ON
   D4/WED...WHEN STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
   ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL LOW OVERSPREADS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. THIS
   WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY EXTEND
   INTO SERN/E-CNTRL NM AND SWRN TX...SUPPORTING A
   NARROW...N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT SURROUND THE CRITICAL AREA...COOLER
   CONDITIONS/HIGHER RH ARE FORECAST TO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD FROM D4/WED TO
   D5/THU...AND EXTEND FROM ERN NM TO CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF SRN OK ON
   D5/THU. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DRY AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION IN THE
   WAKE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...AND A ZONE OF ENHANCED DEEP FLOW
   LINGERS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE
   PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND
   PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A
   BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. FURTHERMORE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN
   LOCALIZED/SHORT-DURATION INSTANCES OF CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS IS LIMITED...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS THROUGH THE
   DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ALSO...ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION COULD
   MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOME AREAS. ACCORDINGLY...A
   CRITICAL AREA HAS NOT BEEN DESIGNATED FOR D5/THU AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...D6/FRI-D8/SUN: PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND W TX...
   THE SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
   RELATIVELY SMALL FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THIS
   GUIDANCE INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED
   ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO
   CROSS THE AREA WITHIN THIS REGIME...PROVIDING ENHANCEMENTS TO THE
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. AND...WITH DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS IN MANY
   LOCATIONS...THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED EACH
   DAY...WARRANTING THE INCLUSION OF MARGINAL AREAS. WHILE EVENTUAL
   UPGRADES TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS...MODEST DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION DETRACTS FROM CONFIDENCE IN A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AS SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN
   DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 02/17/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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