Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 18, 2013

Updated: Mon Feb 18 21:43:03 UTC 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 182141
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
   
   VALID 201200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...D3/WED-D4/THU: PORTIONS OF NM EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   ON D3/WED...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
   S-CNTRL/SERN/E-CNTRL NM AND THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX. THIS WILL
   OCCUR AS STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF A POTENT MID-LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL LOW OVERSPREADS THE
   AREA...AND STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND PARTS
   OF THE LOW AND EXTEND ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA DURING PEAK HEATING.
   SLY TO WSWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 40-55 MPH
   /LOCALLY STRONGER/ WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM THE
   MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS ACROSS THE CRITICAL
   AREA...WHERE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS...AND LOWEST OF THESE
   RH VALUES...ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX AND
   ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR SERN NM...WHERE HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. IT IS IN THESE AREAS WHERE THE STRONGEST
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED AMIDST DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AIDING
   BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING/DRYING. ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT SURROUND THE
   CRITICAL AREA...COOLER CONDITIONS...HIGHER RH...AND/OR PRECIPITATION
   ARE FORECAST TO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT DESPITE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
   
   THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD FROM D3/WED TO
   D4/THU...AND EXTEND FROM ERN NM TO CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF SRN OK ON
   D4/THU. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DRY AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION IN THE
   WAKE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...AND A ZONE OF ENHANCED DEEP FLOW
   LINGERS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE
   PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND
   PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A
   BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. FURTHERMORE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN
   LOCALIZED/SHORT-DURATION INSTANCES OF CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS IS LIMITED...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS THROUGH THE
   DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ALSO...ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION COULD
   MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOME AREAS. ACCORDINGLY...A
   CRITICAL AREA HAS NOT BEEN DESIGNATED FOR D4/THU AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...D5/FRI-D8/MON: PORTIONS OF TX AND SRN/ERN NM...
   MULTI-DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
   MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. MULTIPLE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA WITHIN THIS
   REGIME...PROVIDING ENHANCEMENTS TO THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. AND...WITH
   DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS...THE FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED EACH DAY...WARRANTING THE INCLUSION OF
   MARGINAL AREAS. EVENTUAL UPGRADES TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT IN LATER OUTLOOKS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR
   D7/SUN...WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
   EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC
   WINDS TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...MODEST
   DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
   EVOLUTION DETRACTS FROM CONFIDENCE IN ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. AS SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN DESIGNATED AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 02/18/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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