Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 19, 2013

Updated: Tue Feb 19 21:35:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 19, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 19, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 19, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 19, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 19, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 19, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 19, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Feb 21, 2013 - Fri, Feb 22, 2013 D6Sun, Feb 24, 2013 - Mon, Feb 25, 2013
D4Fri, Feb 22, 2013 - Sat, Feb 23, 2013 D7Mon, Feb 25, 2013 - Tue, Feb 26, 2013
D5Sat, Feb 23, 2013 - Sun, Feb 24, 2013 D8Tue, Feb 26, 2013 - Wed, Feb 27, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192128
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2013
   
   VALID 211200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...D3/THU: PORTIONS OF ERN NM EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DRY AIR
   INFILTRATES THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...AND A
   ZONE OF ENHANCED DEEP FLOW LINGERS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...COOLER
   CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT AND PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES FROM OCCURRING
   ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. FURTHERMORE...CONFIDENCE IN
   ANY MORE THAN SHORT-DURATION INSTANCES OF CRITICALLY STRONG
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS LIMITED...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS
   THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
   STRONG-WIND THREAT /ALBEIT MODEST/ MAY REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE N OF
   ANY MORE APPRECIABLE RISK FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH. ALSO...ANTECEDENT
   PRECIPITATION COULD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOME AREAS.
   ACCORDINGLY...A CRITICAL AREA HAS NOT BEEN DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...D4/FRI-D8/TUE: PORTIONS OF TX AND SRN/ERN NM...
   MULTI-DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT MULTIPLE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
   EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING ENHANCEMENTS TO THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
   AND...WITH DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS...THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED EACH DAY. EVENTUAL UPGRADES TO
   CRITICAL DESIGNATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER OUTLOOKS. THIS IS
   ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR D6/SUN...WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
   RELATIVELY DEEPER TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC WINDS TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. HOWEVER...ONGOING DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS
   REGARDING THE EVOLUTION/TIMING/POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS DETRACTS FROM CONFIDENCE IN ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. AS SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN DESIGNATED AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ..COHEN.. 02/19/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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