Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Thu, Feb 21, 2013 - Fri, Feb 22, 2013 | D6 | Sun, Feb 24, 2013 - Mon, Feb 25, 2013 |
| D4 | Fri, Feb 22, 2013 - Sat, Feb 23, 2013 | D7 | Mon, Feb 25, 2013 - Tue, Feb 26, 2013 |
| D5 | Sat, Feb 23, 2013 - Sun, Feb 24, 2013 | D8 | Tue, Feb 26, 2013 - Wed, Feb 27, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 192128 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2013 VALID 211200Z - 271200Z ...D3/THU: PORTIONS OF ERN NM EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DRY AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...AND A ZONE OF ENHANCED DEEP FLOW LINGERS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. FURTHERMORE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN SHORT-DURATION INSTANCES OF CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS LIMITED...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE STRONG-WIND THREAT /ALBEIT MODEST/ MAY REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE N OF ANY MORE APPRECIABLE RISK FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH. ALSO...ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION COULD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOME AREAS. ACCORDINGLY...A CRITICAL AREA HAS NOT BEEN DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME. ...D4/FRI-D8/TUE: PORTIONS OF TX AND SRN/ERN NM... MULTI-DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING ENHANCEMENTS TO THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. AND...WITH DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS...THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED EACH DAY. EVENTUAL UPGRADES TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER OUTLOOKS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR D6/SUN...WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY DEEPER TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC WINDS TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...ONGOING DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION/TIMING/POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DETRACTS FROM CONFIDENCE IN ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AS SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME. ..COHEN.. 02/19/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT