Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 20, 2013

Updated: Wed Feb 20 20:39:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 20, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 20, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 20, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 20, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 20, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 20, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 20, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Feb 22, 2013 - Sat, Feb 23, 2013 D6Mon, Feb 25, 2013 - Tue, Feb 26, 2013
D4Sat, Feb 23, 2013 - Sun, Feb 24, 2013 D7Tue, Feb 26, 2013 - Wed, Feb 27, 2013
D5Sun, Feb 24, 2013 - Mon, Feb 25, 2013 D8Wed, Feb 27, 2013 - Thu, Feb 28, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202037
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013
   
   VALID 221200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...PORTIONS OF TX AND SRN/ERN NM...
   MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND
   AND NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING PERIODIC ENHANCEMENTS TO THE DEEP FLOW.
   AND...WITH DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS...THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED EACH DAY FROM D3/FRI THROUGH
   D7/TUE...WARRANTING THE INCLUSION OF MARGINAL AREAS. EVENTUAL
   UPGRADES TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR D5/SUN...WHEN MODEL
   SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY DEEPER TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL
   CONUS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC WINDS TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT. 
   
   HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING SPECIFIC
   DETAILS CHARACTERIZING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- INCLUDING
   THEIR EVOLUTION...TIMING...POSITION...AND STRENGTH -- REDUCES
   CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   FURTHERMORE...ON D5/SUN...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT
   RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. AS SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN HIGHLIGHTED
   AT THIS TIME. FOR D8/WED...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR THE
   INCLUSION OF ANY PROBABILITIES...OWING TO RELATIVELY GREATER
   DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS.
   
   ..COHEN.. 02/20/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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