Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Fri, Feb 22, 2013 - Sat, Feb 23, 2013 | D6 | Mon, Feb 25, 2013 - Tue, Feb 26, 2013 |
| D4 | Sat, Feb 23, 2013 - Sun, Feb 24, 2013 | D7 | Tue, Feb 26, 2013 - Wed, Feb 27, 2013 |
| D5 | Sun, Feb 24, 2013 - Mon, Feb 25, 2013 | D8 | Wed, Feb 27, 2013 - Thu, Feb 28, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 202037 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013 VALID 221200Z - 281200Z ...PORTIONS OF TX AND SRN/ERN NM... MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING PERIODIC ENHANCEMENTS TO THE DEEP FLOW. AND...WITH DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS...THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED EACH DAY FROM D3/FRI THROUGH D7/TUE...WARRANTING THE INCLUSION OF MARGINAL AREAS. EVENTUAL UPGRADES TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER OUTLOOKS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR D5/SUN...WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY DEEPER TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC WINDS TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING SPECIFIC DETAILS CHARACTERIZING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- INCLUDING THEIR EVOLUTION...TIMING...POSITION...AND STRENGTH -- REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FURTHERMORE...ON D5/SUN...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AS SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN HIGHLIGHTED AT THIS TIME. FOR D8/WED...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR THE INCLUSION OF ANY PROBABILITIES...OWING TO RELATIVELY GREATER DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS. ..COHEN.. 02/20/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT