Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 21, 2013

Updated: Thu Feb 21 20:52:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 21, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 21, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 21, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 21, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 21, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 21, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 21, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Sat, Feb 23, 2013 - Sun, Feb 24, 2013 D6Tue, Feb 26, 2013 - Wed, Feb 27, 2013
D4Sun, Feb 24, 2013 - Mon, Feb 25, 2013 D7Wed, Feb 27, 2013 - Thu, Feb 28, 2013
D5Mon, Feb 25, 2013 - Tue, Feb 26, 2013 D8Thu, Feb 28, 2013 - Fri, Mar 01, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212050
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013
   
   VALID 231200Z - 011200Z
   
   MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
   EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
   EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
   ACCOMPANYING ZONES OF ENHANCED DEEP FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL
   CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. FURTHERMORE...DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS
   WILL EXIST IN MANY LOCATIONS FROM SRN/ERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF
   TX...WHERE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED EACH DAY FROM
   D3/SAT THROUGH D6/TUE.
   
   D3/SAT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD FROM THE S-CNTRL
   CONUS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. ENHANCED DEEP FLOW TRAILING BEHIND THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY/BRIEFLY STRONG
   WINDS AMIDST DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN/ERN NM AND W
   TX...AS REFLECTED BY THE DELINEATION OF A MARGINAL AREA.
   HOWEVER...ACROSS THIS AREA...WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
   THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT NO MORE THAN BRIEF/SPOTTY INSTANCES
   OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS...AND THUS CRITICAL DESIGNATION HAS NOT
   BEEN MADE.
   
   D4/SUN: A STRONGER/DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
   MID-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH A BAND
   OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COVERING PARTS
   OF NM AND TX. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/ERN NM INTO W TX WHERE AREAS OF LOW RH
   VALUES ARE FORECAST. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL EXIST ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND ADJACENT SW TX...WHERE STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW
   COULD COMBINE WITH LOW RH TO POTENTIALLY SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES MAY MITIGATE
   THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WINDS/LOW RH.
   FURTHERMORE...MODEL VARIABILITY REGARDING THE POSITION OF A POLAR
   FRONT TRAILING WSW/SW OF A SFC CYCLONE -- NORTH OF WHICH EVEN COOLER
   CONDITIONS/HIGHER RH WILL BE PRESENT -- RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY IN
   THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ALSO...THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED TO SOME EXTENT ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE AREA OWING TO THE OCCURRENCE OF RECENT PRECIPITATION. WHILE A
   CRITICAL AREA MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...
   CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS NOT
   SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO DESIGNATE A CRITICAL AREA AT THIS TIME.
   
   D5/MON: THE THREAT FOR ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
   SHIFT SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS FROM D4/SUN INTO
   D5/MON...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ERN NM SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/SRN
   TX ON D5/MON. ENHANCED DEEP FLOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THIS
   AREA WHERE A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...WEAKENING
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY LIMIT THE
   DURATION OF ANY THREAT FOR CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS. THUS...A
   CRITICAL AREA HAS NOT BEEN DESIGNATED ON D5/MON.
   
   D6:/TUE: WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL
   PATTERN CONTINUING INTO D6/TUE...PREDICTABILITY WANES FOR D6/TUE AND
   BEYOND. THIS IS THE CASE AS MODEL VARIABILITY REGARDING SPECIFIC
   CHARACTERISTICS OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THIS REGIME -- INCLUDING
   THEIR EVOLUTION...TIMING...POSITION...AND STRENGTH -- REDUCES
   CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   HOWEVER...FOR D6/TUE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF SRN/ERN NM TO PORTIONS OF W TX. THIS IS
   FORECAST TO OCCUR AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS LEE SFC TROUGH
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
   AROUND THE LEE TROUGH YIELDS MODESTLY ENHANCED WINDS AMIDST DRY
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS.
   
   D7/WED AND D8/THU: PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED
   OWING TO /1/ RELATIVELY GREATER DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS
   REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...AND /2/ THE RANGE OF GUIDANCE
   SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING LITTLE...IF ANY...THREAT FOR ENHANCED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CONUS.
   
   ..COHEN.. 02/21/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT