Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 25, 2013

Updated: Mon Feb 25 20:44:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 25, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 25, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 25, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 25, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 25, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 25, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 25, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Wed, Feb 27, 2013 - Thu, Feb 28, 2013 D6Sat, Mar 02, 2013 - Sun, Mar 03, 2013
D4Thu, Feb 28, 2013 - Fri, Mar 01, 2013 D7Sun, Mar 03, 2013 - Mon, Mar 04, 2013
D5Fri, Mar 01, 2013 - Sat, Mar 02, 2013 D8Mon, Mar 04, 2013 - Tue, Mar 05, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 252042
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013
   
   VALID 271200Z - 051200Z
   
   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
   CONUS AND A TROUGH E OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   THIS WILL REINFORCE GENERALLY COOL/DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
   CNTRL CONUS. EPISODIC INCREASES IN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY OCCUR
   OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF OFFSHORE WINDS
   OVER SRN CA. HOWEVER...POOR CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL
   SOLUTIONS PRECLUDES INTRODUCTION OF PROBABILITIES BEYOND WED/D3.
   
   ...WED/D3 -- S TX...
   A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH S TX EARLY WED...REINFORCING A
   COOL/DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
   TX PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
   FRONT...AND MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ALONG THE
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN S TX. HOWEVER...CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
   
   ...WED/D3 THROUGH SAT/D6 -- SRN CA...
   PERIODIC WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
   WEEKEND AS A PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN. ALTHOUGH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK
   IN THE PRESENCE OF RIDGING...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
   WITHIN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...WARM TEMPERATURES AND
   DRY TROPOSPHERIC AIR WILL SUPPORT LOW RH VALUES. HOWEVER...RECENT
   RAINFALL OVER THE REGION MAY TEMPER THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE
   SPREAD...PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF MARGINAL PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 02/25/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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