Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 26, 2013

Updated: Tue Feb 26 21:07:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 26, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 26, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 26, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 26, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 26, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 26, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 26, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Thu, Feb 28, 2013 - Fri, Mar 01, 2013 D6Sun, Mar 03, 2013 - Mon, Mar 04, 2013
D4Fri, Mar 01, 2013 - Sat, Mar 02, 2013 D7Mon, Mar 04, 2013 - Tue, Mar 05, 2013
D5Sat, Mar 02, 2013 - Sun, Mar 03, 2013 D8Tue, Mar 05, 2013 - Wed, Mar 06, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 262105
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013
   
   VALID 281200Z - 061200Z
   
   LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE CONUS
   E OF THE ROCKY MTNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS
   CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. A STRONG SPEED MAX ACCOMPANYING AN
   UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OUT OF SRN CANADA AND RESULT IN AN
   AMPLIFICATION OF A CNTRL CONUS UPPER TROUGH...MAINTAINING COOL AND
   GENERALLY DRY NLY FLOW...WITH A POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK
   ACROSS S TX ON SAT/D5. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS SRN CA
   FROM THU/D3 THROUGH SAT/D5. BY THE WEEKEND...A BREAKDOWN OF THE WRN
   CONUS UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
   THE PAC NW.
   
   ...THU/D3 THROUGH SAT/D5 -- SRN CA...
   HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT
   BASIN THROUGH SAT/D5...FAVORING WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
   ACROSS SRN CA...PEAKING ON THU/D3. LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES
   WHERE LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR...AS ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW RH. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL
   OVER THE REGION MAY TEMPER THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE
   SPREAD...PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF MARGINAL PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ...SAT/D5 -- S TX...
   A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH S TX EARLY SAT
   MORNING...WITH A PRONOUNCED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
   CNTRL PLAINS. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT DRY
   OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF S TX. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND
   MODERATELY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG/NEAR THE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...BUT CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
   WILL NOT BE MET.
   
   ...SUN/D6 AND MON/D7 -- SRN HIGH PLAINS AND FAR W TX...
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
   REGARDING THE BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AS A
   ERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
   ENOUGH THAT INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST
   AND SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A
   LEE SFC TROUGH. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODERATELY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS
   PARTS OF ERN NM AND W TX ON BOTH SUN/D6 AND MON/D7. ELEVATED TO
   POTENTIALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY
   IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
   PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 02/26/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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