Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Thu, Feb 28, 2013 - Fri, Mar 01, 2013 | D6 | Sun, Mar 03, 2013 - Mon, Mar 04, 2013 |
| D4 | Fri, Mar 01, 2013 - Sat, Mar 02, 2013 | D7 | Mon, Mar 04, 2013 - Tue, Mar 05, 2013 |
| D5 | Sat, Mar 02, 2013 - Sun, Mar 03, 2013 | D8 | Tue, Mar 05, 2013 - Wed, Mar 06, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 262105 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013 VALID 281200Z - 061200Z LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKY MTNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. A STRONG SPEED MAX ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OUT OF SRN CANADA AND RESULT IN AN AMPLIFICATION OF A CNTRL CONUS UPPER TROUGH...MAINTAINING COOL AND GENERALLY DRY NLY FLOW...WITH A POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK ACROSS S TX ON SAT/D5. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS SRN CA FROM THU/D3 THROUGH SAT/D5. BY THE WEEKEND...A BREAKDOWN OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC NW. ...THU/D3 THROUGH SAT/D5 -- SRN CA... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH SAT/D5...FAVORING WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SRN CA...PEAKING ON THU/D3. LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES WHERE LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR...AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW RH. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE REGION MAY TEMPER THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD...PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF MARGINAL PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...SAT/D5 -- S TX... A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH S TX EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH A PRONOUNCED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT DRY OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF S TX. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MODERATELY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG/NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET. ...SUN/D6 AND MON/D7 -- SRN HIGH PLAINS AND FAR W TX... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AS A ERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SFC TROUGH. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODERATELY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND W TX ON BOTH SUN/D6 AND MON/D7. ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ..ROGERS.. 02/26/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT