Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 27, 2013

Updated: Wed Feb 27 20:51:02 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 27, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 27, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 27, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 27, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 27, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 27, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 27, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


D3Fri, Mar 01, 2013 - Sat, Mar 02, 2013 D6Mon, Mar 04, 2013 - Tue, Mar 05, 2013
D4Sat, Mar 02, 2013 - Sun, Mar 03, 2013 D7Tue, Mar 05, 2013 - Wed, Mar 06, 2013
D5Sun, Mar 03, 2013 - Mon, Mar 04, 2013 D8Wed, Mar 06, 2013 - Thu, Mar 07, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272050
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CST WED FEB 27 2013
   
   VALID 011200Z - 071200Z
   
   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH
   OVER THE ERN CONUS...AND A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. A
   STRONG SPEED-MAX IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SWD OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES
   TOWARDS THE WRN GULF COAST ON SAT/D4...AND MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
   WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUN/D5 AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
   UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW...AND EVENTUALLY REACHES THE
   GREAT PLAINS BY MON/D6. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION
   DURING/BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD ARE INCONSISTENT...PRECLUDING HIGH
   CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL AREAS OF ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT AT LEAST AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS ON SUN/D5 AND MON/D6.
   
   ...FRI/D3 THROUGH SAT/D4 -- SRN CA...
   THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN CA WILL FAVOR OFFSHORE FLOW AS HIGH
   PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
   RH RECOVERY WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NELY WINDS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN FAVORED
   CANYONS/PASSES. HOWEVER...FUEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES THAT THE
   THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY RECENT
   RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF MARGINAL
   PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ...SAT/D4 -- S TX...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS IN THE
   POSITIONING OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER
   DISTURBANCE SHIFTING SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS/WRN GULF COAST.
   HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS S TX ALONG THE BASE OF THE PASSING
   DISTURBANCE...ENHANCED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE FOR A POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SUN/D5 AND MON/D6 -- W TX AND ERN NM...
   MID-LEVEL WLYS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SRN EXTENSION OF A
   SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHWEST/SRN PLAINS. DESPITE
   UNCERTAINTY WITH MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
   FEATURE...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SFC
   TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SWLY
   WINDS ON SUN/D5. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
   OCCUR MON/D6 WITH STRONGER WLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEVELOPING IN
   ITS WAKE. HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING/POSITIONING OF INDIVIDUAL
   FEATURES WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 02/27/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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