Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| D3 | Fri, Mar 01, 2013 - Sat, Mar 02, 2013 | D6 | Mon, Mar 04, 2013 - Tue, Mar 05, 2013 |
| D4 | Sat, Mar 02, 2013 - Sun, Mar 03, 2013 | D7 | Tue, Mar 05, 2013 - Wed, Mar 06, 2013 |
| D5 | Sun, Mar 03, 2013 - Mon, Mar 04, 2013 | D8 | Wed, Mar 06, 2013 - Thu, Mar 07, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 272050 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CST WED FEB 27 2013 VALID 011200Z - 071200Z THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...AND A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. A STRONG SPEED-MAX IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SWD OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE WRN GULF COAST ON SAT/D4...AND MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUN/D5 AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW...AND EVENTUALLY REACHES THE GREAT PLAINS BY MON/D6. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION DURING/BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD ARE INCONSISTENT...PRECLUDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL AREAS OF ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT AT LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SUN/D5 AND MON/D6. ...FRI/D3 THROUGH SAT/D4 -- SRN CA... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN CA WILL FAVOR OFFSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NELY WINDS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES. HOWEVER...FUEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES THAT THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF MARGINAL PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...SAT/D4 -- S TX... MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS IN THE POSITIONING OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTING SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS/WRN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS S TX ALONG THE BASE OF THE PASSING DISTURBANCE...ENHANCED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR A POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ...SUN/D5 AND MON/D6 -- W TX AND ERN NM... MID-LEVEL WLYS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SRN EXTENSION OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHWEST/SRN PLAINS. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SFC TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SWLY WINDS ON SUN/D5. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR MON/D6 WITH STRONGER WLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING/POSITIONING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..ROGERS.. 02/27/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT