Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 31, 2013

Updated: Sun Mar 31 20:19:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 31, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 31, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 31, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 31, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 31, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 31, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 31, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Apr 02, 2013 - Wed, Apr 03, 2013 D6Fri, Apr 05, 2013 - Sat, Apr 06, 2013
D4Wed, Apr 03, 2013 - Thu, Apr 04, 2013 D7Sat, Apr 06, 2013 - Sun, Apr 07, 2013
D5Thu, Apr 04, 2013 - Fri, Apr 05, 2013 D8Sun, Apr 07, 2013 - Mon, Apr 08, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 312017
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013
   
   VALID 021200Z - 081200Z
   
   A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
   AND EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST BY
   THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRANSLATE
   EAST AND MERGE WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
   OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.  BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AN
   EAST COAST SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROF. 
   DURING THE WEEK...THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO THE EAST COAST...MINIMIZING ANY FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
   UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
   FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...INCREASING SWLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND
   FAR SW TX.
   
   DAY 3/TUE...FAR SE AZ...SW AND SCNTRL NM AND FAR SW TX...
   THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
   MODERATE WLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ...WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
   FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT.  THIS AREA WILL REMAIN REMOVED FROM THE COLD
   AIR MASS OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
   AND HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE AS LOW AFTER TUESDAY.
   
   DAYS 4 AND 5/WED AND THUR...NO LARGE SCALE FIRE WEATHER AREAS ARE
   EXPECTED WITH COOL TO COLD CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
   COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
   
   DAYS 6...7...8/FRI...SAT...SUN/...SERN NM AND SMALL PART OF FAR SW
   TX...
   MORE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
   WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE ZONAL FLOW
   AND SWLY WINDS PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND TEMPERATURES WARM. 
   AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
   RANGE.
   
   ..BOTHWELL.. 03/31/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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