Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Apr 23, 2013

Updated: Tue Apr 23 19:49:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 23, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 23, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 23, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 23, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 23, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 23, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 23, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Apr 25, 2013 - Fri, Apr 26, 2013 D6Sun, Apr 28, 2013 - Mon, Apr 29, 2013
D4Fri, Apr 26, 2013 - Sat, Apr 27, 2013 D7Mon, Apr 29, 2013 - Tue, Apr 30, 2013
D5Sat, Apr 27, 2013 - Sun, Apr 28, 2013 D8Tue, Apr 30, 2013 - Wed, May 01, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 231947
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2013
   
   VALID 251200Z - 011200Z
   
   GENERALLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A SPLIT/ZONAL PATTERN
   BY THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
   PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ ON D3/THU...ACROSS
   NM AND THE SRN PLAINS ON D4/FRI...AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY D5/SAT.
   STRONG UPPER FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE
   TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON D3/THU ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
   AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS ON D4/FRI.
   SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FROM D5/SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
   PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST WLY FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS AND
   NO INDICATION OF A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT. 
   
   ...D3/THU - D4/FRI: SE AZ/SW NM EWD INTO TX SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
   WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE OF WLY SFC WINDS ACROSS SE AZ/SW NM ON
   D3/THU. AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS VERY DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATING PW VALUES AROUND 0.30 INCH DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
   TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN
   THE LOW TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. GUSTY WINDS IN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIMIT THE
   DURATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LEND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS SO NO CRITICAL AREA WILL BE DELINEATED ATTM.
   THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME RISK OF A FEW DRY
   TSTMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW/W-CNTRL NM. 
   
   DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS ON D4/FRI BUT QUICK PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
   PLACE IT E OF THE REGION AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING...LIMITING WIND
   STRENGTH. PRECEDING PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THREAT CURRENTLY
   APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MARGINAL PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 04/23/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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