Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on May 19, 2013

Updated: Sun May 19 19:44:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on May 19, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 19, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 19, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 19, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 19, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 19, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 19, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 22,272 2,074,258 Las Vegas, NV...Henderson, NV...N. Las Vegas, NV...Dolan Springs, AZ...
D3Tue, May 21, 2013 - Wed, May 22, 2013 D6Fri, May 24, 2013 - Sat, May 25, 2013
D4Wed, May 22, 2013 - Thu, May 23, 2013 D7Sat, May 25, 2013 - Sun, May 26, 2013
D5Thu, May 23, 2013 - Fri, May 24, 2013 D8Sun, May 26, 2013 - Mon, May 27, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 191942
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
   
   VALID 211200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...D4/WED - D8/SUN: SOUTHWEST...
   UPPER TROUGH...CENTERED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AT THE
   BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD AS A DEEP UPPER
   LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE PLAINS...IMPEDING THE PROGRESS OF THE PACIFIC NW UPPER LOW
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE RESULT IS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A VERY DRY
   AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...MARGINAL PROBABILITIES
   EXTEND FROM D4/WED THROUGH D8/SUN ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY
   REMAINS REGARDING THE LOCATIONS WHERE CRITICAL CRITERIA WILL BE MET
   BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AND
   UPGRADES/REFINEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
   CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO OUTLINE A CRITICAL AREA ACROSS NWRN AZ
   AND SRN NV ON D4/WED WHERE SWLY WINDS AROUND 25-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AMIDST A DEEPLY MIXED AND WARM ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/19/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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