Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jun 14, 2013

Updated: Fri Jun 14 20:11:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 14, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 14, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 14, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 14, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 14, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 14, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 14, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Jun 16, 2013 - Mon, Jun 17, 2013 D6Wed, Jun 19, 2013 - Thu, Jun 20, 2013
D4Mon, Jun 17, 2013 - Tue, Jun 18, 2013 D7Thu, Jun 20, 2013 - Fri, Jun 21, 2013
D5Tue, Jun 18, 2013 - Wed, Jun 19, 2013 D8Fri, Jun 21, 2013 - Sat, Jun 22, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142009

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

   VALID 161200Z - 221200Z

   MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
   DAYS OF THE DAY 3-8 PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO
   THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC
   NW BY TUES/DAY 5. THERE IS INCONSISTENCY WITHIN THE MODELS WITH
   REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
   IN THE EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
   WHILE SUPPRESSING THE PLAINS TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   THE ECMWF MEANWHILE MAINTAINS MORE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN BY
   SUSTAINING THE PLAINS RIDGE AND KEEPING THE PAC NW TROUGH CONFINED
   TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. IN EITHER SCENARIO...THERE IS
   LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT
   BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS
   SUCH...PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
   SOMETIME AROUND MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
   FORECAST MODELS...CRITICAL AREAS WILL NOT BE HIGHLIGHTED AT THIS
   TIME. ADDITIONALLY...AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THREAT OF DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NM AND WRN CO MOUNTAINS ON
   DAYS 3 AND 4/SUN-MON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO
   PRECLUDE ANY HIGHLIGHTED AREAS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 06/14/2013

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

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