Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jul 13, 2013

Updated: Sat Jul 13 20:18:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 13, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 13, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 13, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 13, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 13, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 13, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 13, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Jul 15, 2013 - Tue, Jul 16, 2013 D6Thu, Jul 18, 2013 - Fri, Jul 19, 2013
D4Tue, Jul 16, 2013 - Wed, Jul 17, 2013 D7Fri, Jul 19, 2013 - Sat, Jul 20, 2013
D5Wed, Jul 17, 2013 - Thu, Jul 18, 2013 D8Sat, Jul 20, 2013 - Sun, Jul 21, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132016

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

   VALID 151200Z - 211200Z

   THE LATEST CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS
   SUGGESTS THAT A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL TRACK WWD/SWWD FROM THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE SWRN
   STATES DURING EARLY/MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS CYCLONE
   WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
   COVER MANY AREAS OF THE CONUS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
   BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS IT
   MEANDERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN STATES AND ADJACENT NRN MEXICO.
   THE RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME REINFORCED ACROSS THE CNTRL
   CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
   WEEKEND. LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS TO TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER
   THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH OCCASIONAL
   DISTURBANCES ADVANCING THROUGH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE NRN STATES.

   ...DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON
   D4/TUE -- FROM THE WA/ORE CASCADES AND FAR NERN CA EWD ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES -- AND ON
   D5/WED -- FROM THE WA CASCADES AND NERN ORE EWD TOWARD THE NRN
   ROCKIES. THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED BY THE INCLUSION OF
   DRY-THUNDERSTORM MARGINAL AREAS FOR BOTH D4/TUE AND D5/WED.

   ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   THAT IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD FROM THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE
   WA/ORE AND NRN CA COASTS EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE IS
   THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ONSHORE AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NW
   AND NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR
   AS THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ENCIRCLING A CYCLONE MOVING SSEWD FROM
   THE GULF OF ALASKA IMPINGES UPON A SLOW-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM OFF
   THE COAST OF NRN CA. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL AID IN LOCALLY/TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE
   NWRN-EXTENSION OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDING THE BROADER CONUS
   RIDGE.

   FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
   AUGMENT OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMIDST AREAS OF BUOYANCY AND
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY SUPPORT HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NWRN STATES DURING EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF
   THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ENHANCED FLOW THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER
   YIELDING RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS...COMBINED WITH MODESTLY LOW
   PW VALUES...AND DEEP INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DURING THE
   AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTECEDENT RIDGE...ARE ALL
   EXPECTED TO PROMOTE LIMITED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
   THUNDERSTORMS. DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODEL SOLUTIONS
   INDICATE THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE ON
   D4/TUE INTO D5/WED -- INCLUDING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF D4/TUE 
   NIGHT -- WITHIN THE RESPECTIVE DRY-THUNDERSTORM MARGINAL AREAS.

   AT THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
   OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OWING TO MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL
   SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS
   SUCH...A CRITICAL AREA ADDRESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THE
   INTRODUCTION OF ONE OR MORE CRITICAL AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
   LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ALSO OF NOTE...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER PARTS OF THE
   NWRN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR LATE IN THE
   UPCOMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WARM/HOT SFC TEMPERATURES AND LOW
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BENEATH THIS RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING STEEP
   LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROLONG THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT AND ANY FIRES INDUCED BY PREVIOUS LIGHTNING-RELATED
   IGNITIONS.

   ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY-THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO COVERING
   PARTS OF THE NWRN STATES FOR D4/TUE AND D5/WED...AREAS OF MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
   FOR D3/MON THROUGH D8/SAT AND WILL COMBINE WITH ADEQUATE BUOYANCY TO
   SUPPORT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE WRN CONUS. DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY.
   HOWEVER...MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO EXHIBIT MIXED WET/DRY
   AND WET MODES...WITH GREATER STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF
   RICHER LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GENERALLY LIMITED DEEP-LAYER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT IN AREAS WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A
   DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE -- I.E. AREAS WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE
   RELATIVELY LOWER WITH DEEP INVERTED-VEE PROFILES -- SHOULD GREATLY
   SUPPRESS THE COVERAGE/POTENTIAL OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

   ...STRONG WIND/LOW RH POTENTIAL...
   THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCALLY ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND ANY
   ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
   DISPLACED TO THE N OF DRY SFC CONDITIONS/DRY FUELS AT THIS TIME. IN
   GENERAL...THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVENT CRITICALLY STRONG
   WINDS FROM OVERLAPPING WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OVER DRY FUELS.

   ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON D4/TUE ACROSS PARTS OF NV...NWRN AZ...AND
   ERN CA...AS MODESTLY ENHANCED FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE PRECEDING SUBSECTION OVERLIES ANTECEDENT DRY
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT AS SFC WINDS INCREASE IN AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW
   RH...AND MARGINAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO ADDRESS THIS
   POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIABILITY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE
   LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH REDUCES
   CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN MARGINAL/BRIEF/SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ENSUING. AS SUCH...A CRITICAL AREA HAS NOT BEEN
   INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

   ..COHEN.. 07/13/2013

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

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