Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jul 24, 2013

Updated: Wed Jul 24 19:48:04 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 24, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 24, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 24, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 24, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 24, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 24, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 24, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Jul 26, 2013 - Sat, Jul 27, 2013 D6Mon, Jul 29, 2013 - Tue, Jul 30, 2013
D4Sat, Jul 27, 2013 - Sun, Jul 28, 2013 D7Tue, Jul 30, 2013 - Wed, Jul 31, 2013
D5Sun, Jul 28, 2013 - Mon, Jul 29, 2013 D8Wed, Jul 31, 2013 - Thu, Aug 01, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 241946

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

   VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

   A DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
   ACROSS NRN CA THROUGH MUCH OF SRN ID.  MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
   MODELS GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...DESPITE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT. 
   ADDITIONALLY...THE SREF OUTPUT IMPLIES POCKETS OF SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
   DELINEATE A CRITICAL DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHT.  BEYOND
   FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
   MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.  BELTS OF
   INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS WOULD PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
   AND MAY LEAD TO EVENTUAL WIND/RH CONCERNS OVER OREGON/ID/NV
   --DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS.

   ..SMITH.. 07/24/2013

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT