Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Sep 11, 2013

Updated: Wed Sep 11 21:18:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 11, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 11, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 11, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 11, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 11, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 11, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 11, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Sep 13, 2013 - Sat, Sep 14, 2013 D6Mon, Sep 16, 2013 - Tue, Sep 17, 2013
D4Sat, Sep 14, 2013 - Sun, Sep 15, 2013 D7Tue, Sep 17, 2013 - Wed, Sep 18, 2013
D5Sun, Sep 15, 2013 - Mon, Sep 16, 2013 D8Wed, Sep 18, 2013 - Thu, Sep 19, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112116

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0416 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013

   VALID 131200Z - 191200Z

   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
   POTENTIAL BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. BOTH
   THE GFS AND ECMWF PROG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION ON D5/SUN.
   FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER
   OF THE WEEK BEFORE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION AS
   THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
   DELINEATE MARGINAL LOW RH/WIND PROBS ALONG AND SURROUNDING THE NRN
   CA/NV BORDER AND ACROSS SE ORE. ELSEWHERE...ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   WILL BE VERY LOW.

   ..MOSIER.. 09/11/2013

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

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