Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Sep 25, 2013

Updated: Wed Sep 25 20:37:04 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 25, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 25, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 25, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 25, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 25, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 25, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 25, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Sep 27, 2013 - Sat, Sep 28, 2013 D6Mon, Sep 30, 2013 - Tue, Oct 01, 2013
D4Sat, Sep 28, 2013 - Sun, Sep 29, 2013 D7Tue, Oct 01, 2013 - Wed, Oct 02, 2013
D5Sun, Sep 29, 2013 - Mon, Sep 30, 2013 D8Wed, Oct 02, 2013 - Thu, Oct 03, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 252035

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

   VALID 271200Z - 031200Z

   AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
   THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND EXIT INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
   BY SATURDAY /DAY 4/.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
   ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA ON FRIDAY /DAY 3/ AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO
   THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY /DAY 4/.  MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DATA SHOW
   THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DEAMPLIFYING OVER THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
   WEEK.  AS A RESULT...LOW POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS IS FORECAST DURING THE MID-LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED
   PERIOD.

   ...SRN CA...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE SCENARIO OF ONLY A WEAK
   OFFSHORE EVENT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
   THE GREAT BASIN AND STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
   REGION.  A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW RH IS EXPECTED AND MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS.

   ..SMITH.. 09/25/2013

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT