Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 4, 2013

Updated: Mon Nov 4 21:18:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Nov 06, 2013 - Thu, Nov 07, 2013 D6Sat, Nov 09, 2013 - Sun, Nov 10, 2013
D4Thu, Nov 07, 2013 - Fri, Nov 08, 2013 D7Sun, Nov 10, 2013 - Mon, Nov 11, 2013
D5Fri, Nov 08, 2013 - Sat, Nov 09, 2013 D8Mon, Nov 11, 2013 - Tue, Nov 12, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042116

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 PM CST MON NOV 04 2013

   VALID 061200Z - 121200Z

   A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WEDNESDAY
   WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THURSDAY AS AN UPSTREAM
   DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE ERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND
   INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY FRIDAY.  THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL ASSOCIATE MOSTLY
   WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH AND STRONG MOMENTUM
   OVERSPREADING PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE
   MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE FOR THE
   INTRODUCTION OF A LOWER PROBABILITY AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION.  BY THE WEEKEND...A
   QUASI-ZONAL FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN APPEARS TO PERMEATE ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE CONUS RENDERING LOW POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.

   ..SMITH.. 11/04/2013

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

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