Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 20, 2013

Updated: Wed Nov 20 20:53:03 UTC 2013

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2013
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2013

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2013

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2013

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2013

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2013

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 20, 2013

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Nov 22, 2013 - Sat, Nov 23, 2013 D6Mon, Nov 25, 2013 - Tue, Nov 26, 2013
D4Sat, Nov 23, 2013 - Sun, Nov 24, 2013 D7Tue, Nov 26, 2013 - Wed, Nov 27, 2013
D5Sun, Nov 24, 2013 - Mon, Nov 25, 2013 D8Wed, Nov 27, 2013 - Thu, Nov 28, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202051

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 PM CST WED NOV 20 2013

   VALID 221200Z - 281200Z

   A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE -- INITIALLY OFF THE SWRN CA/NRN BAJA CA
   COAST LATE THIS WEEK -- WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INLAND THROUGH THIS
   WEEKEND AND THEN ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK
   WHILE INTERACTING WITH AN AMPLIFYING NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION. AREAS
   OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF CA WWD TO
   THE COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ON D3/FRI...WITH THESE WINDS
   SUBSIDING INTO D4/SAT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS INITIALLY STRONG SFC HIGH
   PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT BASIN GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WHILE
   AREAS OF CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
   THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WWD TO THE CNTRL/NRN CA COASTAL RANGES AND
   ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ON D3/FRI AND PERHAPS D4/SAT...LIMITED FUEL
   DRYNESS AIDED BY RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT TO PRECLUDE PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   CIRCULATING AROUND THE CLOSED CYCLONE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   RELATIVELY HIGHER RH ACROSS THE SRN CA COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT
   FOOTHILLS TO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT THERE ON D3/FRI AND
   D4/SAT...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AREAS OF ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW.

   FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY/MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...THE
   LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER DEEP FLOW
   WILL BE REMOVED WELL TO THE N OF ANY RELATIVELY DRY SFC
   CONDITIONS...LARGELY MITIGATING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN.. 11/20/2013

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

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