Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 15, 2014

Updated: Sat Feb 15 21:34:03 UTC 2014

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2014
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2014

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2014

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2014

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2014

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2014

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 15, 2014

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D5 53,720 332,774 Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Pecos, TX...
D3Mon, Feb 17, 2014 - Tue, Feb 18, 2014 D6Thu, Feb 20, 2014 - Fri, Feb 21, 2014
D4Tue, Feb 18, 2014 - Wed, Feb 19, 2014 D7Fri, Feb 21, 2014 - Sat, Feb 22, 2014
D5Wed, Feb 19, 2014 - Thu, Feb 20, 2014 D8Sat, Feb 22, 2014 - Sun, Feb 23, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152131

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014

   VALID 171200Z - 231200Z

   RELATIVELY ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHWEST/SRN PLAINS WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE/LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW
   REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD
   WILL BE A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
   BASIN/ROCKIES ON WED/D5. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
   IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS ERN
   NM AND FAR W TX...WHERE STRONG WLY WINDS AMIDST A DRY/WARM AIR MASS
   WILL MATERIALIZE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL COULD RESURFACE ON
   FRI/D7...BUT PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION.

   ..ROGERS.. 02/15/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT