Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 1, 2014

Updated: Sat Mar 1 20:13:03 UTC 2014

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2014
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2014

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2014

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2014

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2014

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2014

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2014

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Mar 03, 2014 - Tue, Mar 04, 2014 D6Thu, Mar 06, 2014 - Fri, Mar 07, 2014
D4Tue, Mar 04, 2014 - Wed, Mar 05, 2014 D7Fri, Mar 07, 2014 - Sat, Mar 08, 2014
D5Wed, Mar 05, 2014 - Thu, Mar 06, 2014 D8Sat, Mar 08, 2014 - Sun, Mar 09, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 012011

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2014

   VALID 031200Z - 091200Z

   MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT DAY 4
   OR 5/TUE-WED...THEREAFTER TIMING AND PHASING ISSUES BECOME QUITE
   LARGE...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THE END OF THE FORECAST
   PERIOD. WHAT IS MORE CLEAR IS THAT A MAINLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
   CONTINUE...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING ACROSS THE
   COUNTRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEARS
   TO BE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...THE DAY
   6-8/THU-SAT TIME FRAME. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES AND PLAINS DURING THIS TIME...REINFORCING A LARGER-SCALE
   EASTERN TROUGH. SFC INDUCED LEE TROUGHING COULD LEAD TO WINDY
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THESE MID AND UPPER
   LEVEL FEATURES BRUSH THAT AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
   FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH DAYS AND
   EXACTLY WHERE ELEVATED CONDITIONS MIGHT DEVELOP.

   ..LEITMAN.. 03/01/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

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