Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Apr 9, 2014

Updated: Wed Apr 9 20:56:03 UTC 2014

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 9, 2014
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 9, 2014

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 9, 2014

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 9, 2014

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 9, 2014

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 9, 2014

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 9, 2014

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 61,995 1,865,951 El Paso, TX...Tucson, AZ...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Hobbs, NM...
D3Fri, Apr 11, 2014 - Sat, Apr 12, 2014 D6Mon, Apr 14, 2014 - Tue, Apr 15, 2014
D4Sat, Apr 12, 2014 - Sun, Apr 13, 2014 D7Tue, Apr 15, 2014 - Wed, Apr 16, 2014
D5Sun, Apr 13, 2014 - Mon, Apr 14, 2014 D8Wed, Apr 16, 2014 - Thu, Apr 17, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092054

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CDT WED APR 09 2014

   VALID 111200Z - 171200Z

   ...D4/SAT - D5/SUN: SOUTHWEST/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
   PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LOW THE MOVES ACROSS SRN CA AND INTO AZ ON
   D4/SAT. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
   THIS TIGHT GRADIENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
   OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN HIGH PLAINS ON
   D4/SAT. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM SE AZ NEWD
   ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR W TX IS GOOD...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS CONSIDERABLY FROM YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...CRITICAL
   AREA HAS BEEN DELINEATED ACROSS THIS REGION. 

   MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR D5/SUN AS MODELS HANDLE THE SWD
   PROGRESSION OF THE COLD DIFFERENTLY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
   REGARDING POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AS WELL. DELINEATED AN ELEVATED
   THREAT IN THE AREA WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS IN AT LEAST ELEVATED
   CONDITIONS IS GREATEST /FROM FAR SE AZ ACROSS SRN NM AND INTO W
   TX/TX ROLLING PLAINS/. SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
   BUT TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES EXISTS TO NARROW DOWN A RISK AREA AND
   INTRODUCE A CRITICAL RISK AT THIS TIME. 

   ...D6/MON - D8/WED...
   STRONG NLY WIND ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
   THE COLD FRONT ON D6/MON BUT POTENTIAL ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION AND
   DIFFERENCES ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY THREAT AREAS
   WITH THIS FORECAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON D7/TUE WITH
   LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.

   ..MOSIER.. 04/09/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT