Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Apr 26, 2014

Updated: Sat Apr 26 20:34:03 UTC 2014

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 26, 2014
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 26, 2014

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 26, 2014

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 26, 2014

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 26, 2014

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 26, 2014

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 26, 2014

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 146,869 2,062,787 Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...
D3Mon, Apr 28, 2014 - Tue, Apr 29, 2014 D6Thu, May 01, 2014 - Fri, May 02, 2014
D4Tue, Apr 29, 2014 - Wed, Apr 30, 2014 D7Fri, May 02, 2014 - Sat, May 03, 2014
D5Wed, Apr 30, 2014 - Thu, May 01, 2014 D8Sat, May 03, 2014 - Sun, May 04, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 262032

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

   VALID 281200Z - 041200Z

   FOR THE DAYS 3 THROUGH 8...A CLOSED SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
   REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
   THE UPPER LOW.  THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION.  UPPER RIDGES WILL BUILD OVER BOTH THE EAST AND WEST
   COAST.  A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
   DURING THE WEEK WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO TX.

   INITIALLY ON DAY 3/MONDAY...SOUTHERN NM AND SW TX WILL HAVE CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND HUMIDITY FROM 5 TO 15
   PERCENT.  WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE W/NW AT
   20 TO 30 MPH.  IT WILL BE WARM...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND
   80S.  MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY4/TUESDAY AS WINDS WILL
   BEGIN TO DECREASE.  WINDS WILL BE NW AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND HUMIDITY
   WILL STILL BE VERY LOW AT 5 TO 15 PERCENT.  TUESDAY SHOULD SEE
   COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS AREA SHOULD SEE
   MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
   HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW...IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. 

   BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS
   BOTH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF SRN CA.  
   SRN CA SHOULD SEE LIGHT NELY/OFFSHORE WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND
   LOW HUMIDITY.

   ..BOTHWELL.. 04/26/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

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