Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Aug 7, 2014

Updated: Thu Aug 7 20:17:02 UTC 2014

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 7, 2014
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 7, 2014

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 7, 2014

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 7, 2014

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 7, 2014

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 7, 2014

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 7, 2014

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Aug 09, 2014 - Sun, Aug 10, 2014 D6Tue, Aug 12, 2014 - Wed, Aug 13, 2014
D4Sun, Aug 10, 2014 - Mon, Aug 11, 2014 D7Wed, Aug 13, 2014 - Thu, Aug 14, 2014
D5Mon, Aug 11, 2014 - Tue, Aug 12, 2014 D8Thu, Aug 14, 2014 - Fri, Aug 15, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 072015

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2014

   VALID 091200Z - 151200Z

   NO LARGE SCALE AREAS OF LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
   THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
   U.S. REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
   CANADA.  LOCALLY STRONGER TERRAIN INFLUENCED WINDS...WARM
   TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS
   ACROSS NRN CA...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES. 

   THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW THAT
   ADVANCES TO THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY SUNDAY AS
   INDICATED BY NAM/GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.  WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY...THIS WILL LEAD TO A SMALL ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
   AREA IN NERN CA AS EARLY AS DAY 3/SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
   ACROSS NRN CA...THE SERN HALF OF OREGON...EXTRM NWRN NV FOR DAYS
   4/5/6-SUN/MON/TUE.  BY TUESDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH THE
   PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...STORMS MAY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WET
   REGIME.  FOR DAYS 7/8-WED/THUR...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVENTUAL
   EVOLUTION OF THE LOW/TROUGH AND HAVE NOT HIGHLIGHTED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM AREAS AT THIS TIME FOR WED/THUR.

   ..BOTHWELL.. 08/07/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

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