Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Aug 19, 2014

Updated: Tue Aug 19 20:47:02 UTC 2014

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 19, 2014
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 19, 2014

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 19, 2014

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 19, 2014

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 19, 2014

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 19, 2014

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 19, 2014

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Aug 21, 2014 - Fri, Aug 22, 2014 D6Sun, Aug 24, 2014 - Mon, Aug 25, 2014
D4Fri, Aug 22, 2014 - Sat, Aug 23, 2014 D7Mon, Aug 25, 2014 - Tue, Aug 26, 2014
D5Sat, Aug 23, 2014 - Sun, Aug 24, 2014 D8Tue, Aug 26, 2014 - Wed, Aug 27, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192045

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 271200Z

   MEAN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL LIKELY FAVOR AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   WRN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL ASSOCIATED IMPULSE IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE PAC NW ON THU/D3...AND WILL PROBABLY
   RESULT IN INCREASED TSTM POTENTIAL FOR ERN WA...BUT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR DRY TSTMS WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND MARGINAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER DRYNESS. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE
   WEEKEND...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WRN
   CONUS...AND SHOULD LEAD TO A GENERAL REDUCTION IN TSTM COVERAGE. THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED...WITH LOW
   PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND/LOW RH EVENTS THROUGH NEXT
   WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE MAY RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND COULD
   FOSTER A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE NWD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
   CONUS.

   ..ROGERS.. 08/19/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT