Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 20, 2017

Updated: Mon Mar 20 21:13:03 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 20, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 20, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 20, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 20, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 20, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 20, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 20, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 62,918 1,829,156 Albuquerque, NM...Pueblo, CO...Las Cruces, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...Roswell, NM...
D4 128,179 2,010,750 El Paso, TX...Amarillo, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...
D5 92,704 1,935,974 El Paso, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...Odessa, TX...
D3Wed, Mar 22, 2017 - Thu, Mar 23, 2017 D6Sat, Mar 25, 2017 - Sun, Mar 26, 2017
D4Thu, Mar 23, 2017 - Fri, Mar 24, 2017 D7Sun, Mar 26, 2017 - Mon, Mar 27, 2017
D5Fri, Mar 24, 2017 - Sat, Mar 25, 2017 D8Mon, Mar 27, 2017 - Tue, Mar 28, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202110

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0410 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   An active southern stream will promote fire weather conditions
   across the Southwest and southern Plains throughout much of the
   period. The first shortwave trough is expected to move across the
   Southwest on D4/Thursday and into the southern Plains on D5/Friday.
   Strong wind fields, both aloft and at the surface, will spread over
   the region as this maturing shortwave trough moves through. This
   lead shortwave trough is then expected to track northeastward
   through the middle MS valley while another shortwave trough moves
   through the Southwest on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. 

   ...D3/Wednesday-D5/Friday: Southwest and southern/central Plains...
   Strong southwesterly flow aloft will begin spreading over the
   Southwest on D3/Wednesday ahead of the approaching shortwave trough.
   The surface pressure gradient is also expected to tighten as a
   strong area of high pressure remains centered over the upper Great
   Lakes and lower pressure develops over the Intermountain West and
   High Plains. These factors will combine to support gusty
   southwesterly surface winds. Resulting downslope effects within an
   already warm and dry environment are expected to result in critical
   fire weather conditions.

   A similar scenario will play out on D4/Thursday farther east across
   the central/southern Plains but with stronger flow aloft and a
   stronger surface pressure gradient. As a result, a large area of
   critical fire weather conditions is anticipated with some high-end
   conditions possible, particularly across southeast NM and the TX
   Trans-Pecos. In these areas, single digit RH values may overlap with
   sustained winds from 30 to 40 mph. 

   Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist within the
   post-frontal environment across the southern Plains into D5/Friday.
   Sustained winds around 30 mph are anticipated, but in contrast to
   D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday, these sustained winds will be
   westerly/northwesterly with the resulting wind shift complicating
   any ongoing fire suppression efforts. Temperatures will be a bit
   cooler but the dry airmass should still support afternoon RH values
   below critical thresholds. Antecedent precipitation is possible but
   current guidance keeps accumulations low, suggesting fuels will
   remain receptive to fire spread.

   ...D7/Sunday: Southern High Plains...
   Flow aloft will again increase across the region ahead of another
   approaching shortwave trough. Guidance differs on the strength and
   progression of this shortwave but there is still enough consensus
   regarding potential fire weather conditions to introduce a
   40-percent outlook area. Higher probabilities may be needed in
   subsequent outlooks once models begin to converge on a solution.

   ..Mosier.. 03/20/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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