Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Aug 12, 2017

Updated: Sat Aug 12 21:18:03 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 12, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 12, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 12, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 12, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 12, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 12, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 12, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Aug 14, 2017 - Tue, Aug 15, 2017 D6Thu, Aug 17, 2017 - Fri, Aug 18, 2017
D4Tue, Aug 15, 2017 - Wed, Aug 16, 2017 D7Fri, Aug 18, 2017 - Sat, Aug 19, 2017
D5Wed, Aug 16, 2017 - Thu, Aug 17, 2017 D8Sat, Aug 19, 2017 - Sun, Aug 20, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122116

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0416 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   A longer-wavelength trough moving through the western United States
   at the beginning of the period will continue to move slowly east
   through mid week. As this occurs, zonal-to-northwest flow will
   develop across the Pacific Northwest and, eventually, the Northern
   Rocky Mountains. This will result in a drying and gradual warming
   trend across this area. Additionally, embedded within the eastward
   moving longer-wavelength trough, a series of short-wave troughs will
   act to periodically strengthen low-level flow across interior
   portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Although
   critical conditions do not look to be met on anything more than a
   brief/isolated basis, any increase in low-level flow will result in
   increasing large-scale fire-weather concerns given long-term drought
   conditions.

   ..Marsh.. 08/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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