Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Sep 12, 2017

Updated: Tue Sep 12 20:04:02 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 12, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 12, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 12, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 12, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 12, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 12, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 12, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Sep 14, 2017 - Fri, Sep 15, 2017 D6Sun, Sep 17, 2017 - Mon, Sep 18, 2017
D4Fri, Sep 15, 2017 - Sat, Sep 16, 2017 D7Mon, Sep 18, 2017 - Tue, Sep 19, 2017
D5Sat, Sep 16, 2017 - Sun, Sep 17, 2017 D8Tue, Sep 19, 2017 - Wed, Sep 20, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122002

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that an upper trough
   will amplify and become established over much of the western CONUS
   by Day 4/Friday. While enhanced mid-level winds associated with this
   trough will overspread a majority of the western states through the
   end of the week, strong/gusty surface winds behind a slowly
   southeastward-moving cold front are generally not expected to
   overlap areas of critically lowered RH values. Wetting rainfall will
   likely occur with this upper trough passage for much of the northern
   Rockies/Great Basin and vicinity.

   A separate upper low should move generally east-northeastward across
   the Great Basin/Southwest ahead of the previously mentioned upper
   trough on Day 3/Thursday. Enhanced southwesterly mid-level winds
   will occur with this upper low, and the surface pressure gradient
   should strengthen across the central/southern High Plains by
   Thursday afternoon as a lee trough/low develops. Strong/gusty
   southerly winds may occur across a portion of the central/southern
   High Plains on Day 3/Thursday in conjunction with RH values becoming
   lowered to near-critical levels. With a general lack of recent
   precipitation and fine fuels becoming drier, elevated fire weather
   conditions may develop. However, the lack of even stronger forecast
   winds and a drier low-level airmass precludes 40%/marginal
   probabilities for critical fire weather conditions.

   Large-scale upper troughing across much of the western CONUS on Day
   4/Friday should continue moving northeastward across the Plains this
   upcoming weekend. Strong/gusty winds may develop once again Friday
   afternoon across parts of the central/southern High Plains in
   conjunction with marginally lowered RH values. However, the
   probability of critical conditions occurring appears too low to
   introduce probabilities for Day 4/Friday. From Day 6/Sunday through
   the end of the forecast period, medium-range guidance suggests
   another highly amplified upper trough/low should develop from the
   eastern Pacific to the western CONUS. Even though a belt of enhanced
   mid/upper-level winds should be present over part of this region,
   the likelihood for strong/gusty surface winds to overlap with
   critically lowered RH values and dry fuels appears low at this
   extended time frame.

   ..Gleason.. 09/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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