Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Sep 13, 2017

Updated: Wed Sep 13 22:01:02 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 13, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 13, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 13, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 13, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 13, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 13, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 13, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Sep 15, 2017 - Sat, Sep 16, 2017 D6Mon, Sep 18, 2017 - Tue, Sep 19, 2017
D4Sat, Sep 16, 2017 - Sun, Sep 17, 2017 D7Tue, Sep 19, 2017 - Wed, Sep 20, 2017
D5Sun, Sep 17, 2017 - Mon, Sep 18, 2017 D8Wed, Sep 20, 2017 - Thu, Sep 21, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   Amplification of a west coast trough is expected Day 3/Friday, which
   will allow stronger mid-level flow to overspread much of the western
   United States. Additionally, large-scale lift associated with the
   trough and increasing deep-layer moisture will act to increase the
   potential for widespread wetting rainfall across portions of the
   northern Great Basin and Rocky Mountain regions Friday into the
   weekend. A stronger/deeper trough is forecast to amplify and become
   established across parts of the western United States early next
   week. Strong mid-level flow and wetting rainfall attendant with this
   trough is also expected.

   ...Day 3/Friday...
   Elevated to perhaps locally-critical conditions may arise across
   portions of western KS into the TX and OK panhandles Day 3/Friday.
   This would occur owing to relatively dry return flow strengthening
   in response to a deepening lee trough across northeast CO and
   northwest KS. AHPS precipitation guidance indicates only a few
   pockets of meaningful rainfall over the past 2 weeks, which has
   allowed fuels -- especially fine fuels -- to become sufficiently
   dry. While winds are expected to be near critical thresholds,
   ensemble guidance suggests uncertainty in the magnitude of
   boundary-layer RH reductions is currently too large to introduce 40%
   critical wind/RH probabilities.

   ...Day 4/Saturday through Day 8/Wednesday...
   While some potential for critical fire weather conditions may
   develop during this time across portions of the plains, uncertainty
   with regards to the evolution of the synoptic features, the
   receptiveness of fuels (owing to expected rainfall), and the degree
   of boundary-layer RH reductions are too large to include
   probabilities at this time. Furthermore, continued wetting rainfall
   combined with cooler temperatures should begin to temper the
   large-scale critical fire weather threat across the western U.S.
   toward the middle of next week.

   ..Elliott/Gleason.. 09/13/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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